Friday, May 8, 2015

TempLS April cooler by 0.1°C

As foreshadowed from the daily NCEP reanalysis, April surface temperatures were down, according to TempLS, from 0.721°C to 0.623°C (as at 8/5). Data came in early, though I don't think we have all of Canada. Warm in central Russia, West N America, an odd pattern in Africa, which may change with more data. I'll just paste the report below.

Update. I notice Roy Spencer's map has the same major features as the one below.



Posted by Nick Stokes at 3:02 AM

7 comments:

  1. JCHMay 8, 2015 at 12:44 PM

    It's shaping up to be nowhere close to as bad as I thought throughout most of the month, and now May is looking to be very warm.

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  2. OlofMay 8, 2015 at 6:49 PM

    There are still some major areas remaining, Greenland, Mexico, Sudan, South Africa, etc, but they will probably not do very much. My wild guess, GHCN-based indices only 0.04 down, went wrong. I underestimated the land cooling, it was more than -0.20 (more likely -0.30 to -0.40), so it did not help that oceans warmed by 0.04.

    In hindsight I adjust my recipe for an early guess. Take two thirds ERSST anomaly change (+0.04) and one third UAH land (-0.30), which makes -0.073 in April, and applied on GISS an April value of 0.76-0.77

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  3. JCHMay 8, 2015 at 10:08 PM

    Olof's Waterlulu!

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    Replies
    1. OlofMay 9, 2015 at 8:30 PM

      Well, SST anomalies are truly interesting. Since 2003 they have entered a pronounced seasonal regime, driven by the NH. At the same time NH and SH also start to diverge in annually averaged temps.
      http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst3gl/from:1997/plot/hadsst3nh/from:1997/plot/hadsst3sh/from:1997/plot/hadsst3nh/from:1997/mean:12/plot/hadsst3sh/from:1997/mean:12

      Delete
  4. JCHMay 10, 2015 at 1:47 AM

    switched the aqua and dark blue to see it better

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  5. JCHMay 13, 2015 at 10:23 PM

    GISS in at .75C. Still hot.

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    Replies
    1. OlofMay 14, 2015 at 3:03 AM

      Yes, it's actually the second hottest April ever. It beats April 2014 (.73) and we have a new running 12-month record again. And 2015 so far, is 0.11 above the 2014 average.

      April was -0.10 compared with March. Here is a rank of the forecast skill of different reanalyses:
      -0.12 Nick Stokes
      -0.14 Weatherbell
      -0.18 David Appell/CCI*
      -0.25 Karsten Haustein (both his versions gave the same result)

      * David Appell uses a conversion factor of 1.95. If he had gone straight with the CCI reanalysis the value had been -0.09, I assume

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