Friday, January 6, 2017

First surface temperature 2016 record - TempLS.

TempLS mesh was down a little in December, from 0.699°C in Nov to 0.653°C. That actually makes it the third warmest in the record, behind 2014 (just) and 2015. TempLS grid actually went up by about 0.04°C. As usual, this reflects differences at poles, which were not so warm in December. This affects TempLS mesh more, as it will GISS relative to NOAA/HADCRUT

The main map features are cold in N central Russia and NW America (but not Alaska), and big warmth around Central Asia.

But the main news is that it completes the year average, which was a record high at 0.807°C. All TempLS anomalies are relative to 1961-90 base years. 2016 beat the 2015 record of 0.728°C, so there shouldn't be much chatter about a "statistical tie". I have posted the series of cumulative records plots here. The plot for TempLS mesh is below. It shows a new color and level in each year a record was set.

TempLS grid was also a record at 0.776°C, vs 0.745°C for 2015. That's closer, reflecting again the fact that warmth at the poles was a feature of 2016, and is picked up more strongly by TempLS mesh. I expect that this will be reflected in the major indices, with GISS setting a record by a good margin, but NOAA and HADCRUT closer, In fact, HADCRUT is no sure thing, although I think the rise in TempLS grid this month increases the likelihood.

Data for RSS and UAH5.6 are also in. RSS V3.3 TLT dropped as did UAH V6, but still narrowly set a record for warmth in 2016. UAH5.6 had 2016 warmer by a more substantial margin. You can see the predicted record plots updated as data comes in here.

Wednesday, January 4, 2017

UAH - first index with record warm 2016

if you don't count NCEP/NCAR. But UAH just scraped in, due to a drop of 0.21°C in December. I see Roy Spencer has now adopted the line "not statistically warmer". I guess we'll hear a lot of this. There will be indices that will never be "statistically warmer" while the temperatures go up and up.

Anyway, in previous years I have shown progressive record plots to show how the record has crept (or, sometimes recently, leapt) upward over the years. This year I wanted to take an advance peek. So I did a range of indices, infilling missing months with the minimum month for 2016. That is pretty conservative, although it would have overestimated UAH. I show the plots below. There is more explanation of the style here. This time I have headed the plots with an "Incomplete" and superimposed a pink cross if there was infilling. I'll maintain it, so when the results are all in, this will go away. Use the arrow buttons to flick through the datasets. I'll try to keep the most recent finalised showing first. With conservative infilling, all indices currently show a record, though some are close. Often, the margin is high if that for 2015 was low, and vice versa.

For the meaning of the headings, see the glossary here.

Tuesday, January 3, 2017

NCEP/NCAR December Down 0.09°C - coolest since June.

The Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index fell from 0.48°C in November to 0.391°C (June was 0.369°C). It was an up and down month, cool in the mid, but warm at the end.

I don't normally talk about long term records with reanalysis, because I don't think it is homogeneous enough. But I will note that successive annual averages for the last three years were 0.19, 0.33, and 0.531°C (anomaly base 1994-2013). So up by 0.2°C in 2016. This is an indicator of large margins in other indices. It also means that all months in 2016 were warmer than the 2015 average, including December. El Nino has gone, but it stayed warm.

A feature was again a band of cold from Cairo to Vladivistok through Russia, though most of Asia was warm. Also cold in Canada and north US, though not in the South. Warm in the Arctic - a pattern for the December quarter.

Sea ice in the Arctic became more normal, and the very fast melting in the Antarctic slowed, although still a lot less ice than in other years.

Friday, December 23, 2016

Merry Christmas to all

And a viable New Year (as our CFO used to wish)

As a Christmas gift, I've been sparring at WUWT with folk who insist that raw temperature data is hidden/deleted/not available. I point them, of course, to GHCN Daily. But there was much talk of BoM, and I must admit that the data page isn't as obvious as it was. But it is there. And not only can you get an unadjusted daily file for just about any station they have, back to start, but you can download zipped csv files for max and min (but not together, unfortunately). And there is also extensive metadata.

On to interesting times. Here is Sou on Mike Mann's court victory. And Eli.

Friday, December 16, 2016

GISS rose 0.07°C in November.

GISS is up from 0.88°C in October to 0.95°C in November. That is similar to the NCEP/NCAR rise, but contrasts with a small drop in TempLS mesh and a larger one in TempLS grid. I think a lot of the changes this month will reflect the different treatment of the October freeze in Siberia and warmth in the Arctic.

Of course, the alt-news headlines, even tweeted by the US House Science Committee, was that "world average temperatures have plummeted since the middle of the year at a faster and steeper rate than at any time in the recent past". No sign of that on closer inspection. Here is my plot comparing 2015/6 with 1997/8. It's from this post, where you can see other datasets similarly plotted:

Another point of interest at this time of year is whether 2016 will be a record. Actually, not much interest; it seems certain in most indices. I've been tracking that at a post here qv for details); I'll echo it here. The faint lines that extend data is how the average will progress if temperatures continue at current month level:

I'll show the regular GISS plot and TempLS comparison below the fold

Thursday, December 15, 2016

Current global temps compared with CMIP 5

A plot has been in circulation for some time from John Christy. It is a version of one that he showed at a US Senate hearing, and is discussed here.

I don't know if it was ever accurate, but it ends in 2013, so obviously needs updating. It's also woth showing the other surface datasets, and definitely not showing the troposphere record, which I don't think is honest. The CMIP data is for surface, not troposphere.

So I have made my own version, using CMIP 5 data from KNMI. I have used their averages for the RCP groups, and their collection of 106 model runs (one per model/RCP), which is shown in the background. The complete data and R code for the plot are in a zipfile here.

It's a very different picture. The observations, as expected, are far more volatile than the multi-model means, and the slope is somewhat less, but is far from out of range. And of course, recent warming actually takes observations above the mean. I have set the anomaly base for all curves to 1981-2010, the WMO recommendation.

Sunday, December 11, 2016

Storing data for the winter.

I've been squirreling data away, and posting here, even before the current threats to US Science. But a post by Tamino prompted me to get a wriggle on. In particular, I decided to systematically post the files of monthly data that I use for graphs and tables on the latest temperature page. They are tables looking like this, but going back to 1850. My idea is to update weekly, and store monthly versions, so one can refer back. I have started doing that; there is a CSV file and a R data format file, with a readme, zipped. The URL for this month is
and it will change in the obvious way for future months. I'll probably put a table of links on the portals page, once a few have accumulated.

I'll look for other opportunities to back up. I'm actually more dependent on current data like GHCN, ERSST and AVHRR data, and the reanalysis. I'm more optimistic there, because that data is collected for weather forecasting, which has powerful clients. So while access may be bumpy, I don't think it will be lost.