Wednesday, July 20, 2016

GISS down 0.14°C in June; NOAA up slightly

GISS was late this month. NOAA is also out - numbers here. GISS is down from 0.93°C in May to 0.79°C in June. This is more than the fall of 0.06° in TempLS, and a little more than the posted, 0.1°C fall in the NCEP/NCAR index. As Sou has noted, it is still (just) the hottest June in the GISS record.

NOAA however rose slightly, from 0.877°C to 0.899°C. TempLS grid also rose, from 0.704°C to 0.75. This is a pattern often observed in the past, where GISS follows TempLS mesh, and TempLS grid tracks NOAA. It is expected from the different ways they are constructed. I'll show the map comparisons below the fold. The updated comparison plots with 1998 are here

Friday, July 8, 2016

Surface TempLS down 0.064°C in June

TempLS mesh, reported here (as of 8 July, 4306 stations), was down from 0.746°C in May to 0.682°C in June (base 1961-90). This shows some easing the post El Nino decline also seen in the NCEP/NCAR index (down 0.1). In fact, TempLS grid rose slightly, from 0.70°C to 0.74°C. The SST component of TempLS also rose. The satellite measures varied; UAH6 Lt was down 0.21°C, but RSS only 0.06°C.

The spherical harmonics map is here:

The one notable cool spot was near Paraguay, but both high Arctic and much of Antarctic were cool. Also US, S America around Paraguay, and a spot in the N Pacific. Warm in W US, around Egypt, Alaska and part of Siberia. The breakdown shows only Antarctica (cool) as unusual. The different coverage of Antarctica is likely to lead to discrepancies, as with TempLS mesh and grid.

In other news, 2016 JAXA Ice briefly lost, then recovered its lead. It is likely to soon fall behind 2012.

Sunday, July 3, 2016

NCEP/NCAR down 0.1°C in June

The NCEP/NCAR index dropped again in June, from 0.471°C in May to 0.369°C in May (anomaly base 1994-2013). The drop is smaller than previous months, and may be a sign of levelling. We are now back in average to about Sept 2015, the first small rise of the El Nino.

 Cold in E Europe to W Siberia, most of US except E Coast, and a band of cold from Labrador/Greenland into the N Atlantic. Warm in Arctic and Canada, and the reanalysis still has the ENSO region fairly warm. Globally, the temperature rose somewhat at end of month.

In other news, UAH V6 also dropped considerably, from 0.55°C to 0.34°C. Arctic Sea Ice recovered somewhat (relatively), and 2016 is now not quite in the lead. Big drops in the last few days, but looking back through the record, this seems to be a feature of the end of our financial year.

Sunday, June 26, 2016

Brexit - who will make it happen?

I try mostly to stick to climate at Moyhu, maybe sometimes straying into maths. But I see our contemporaries all have something to say on it - Sou, Stoat, ATTP, Eli, and even Lord M.

One reason why I tend to avoid politics in blogging is that the information content tends to be low. Plenty of other people would say what I would say, and it all gets predictable. But for the record - yes, I think Britain should have stayed in the EU. I'm old enough to remember when Britain originally shied away from EEC membership, and then through the hard work of Ted Heath and others, was able to belatedly join, suffering some disadvantage from the delay. I was actually in Britain in June 1975 when the first ever national referendum was held, getting support for (by then negotiated) EEC membership by 66%.

I think Britain's sparing use of referenda is justified. In Australia we have them fairly frequently. There is provision for them in the constitution, which adds the requirement to succeed that have to get not only a majority of voters, but a majority of states (ie 4 out of 6). Consequently, it takes a substantial majority to succeed.

In this post I don't want to dwell on the rights and wrongs of the actual vote, but just to raise a question that puzzles me. Who will actually implement it? That issue seems to be a tangle built into adding referenda on to parliamentary government. It hasn't affected us much, because referenda only succeed with bipartisan parliamentary support, with the extra burden of 4 states approving. And they tend to be issues which would not anyway affect the fate of governments. We have one coming up on gay marriage. Probably the most noted in recent times was the referendum on becoming a republic. But even if that had passed, it's unlikely that PM Howard, who opposed it, would have felt required to resign.

Anyway, what I'm writing about here is the mechanics. Exiting the EU in a reasonable way will be a very hard task. It will require acts of parliament, some of which may be unpopular. How will it be done?

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

GISS down 0.16°C in May; still hottest May in record

GISS is down from 1.09°C in April to 0.93°C in May. This is in line with the fall of 0.186° in TempLS, or as noted earlier, 0.164°C in the NCEP/NCAR index. Also similar falls in the troposphere indices. Still, it was 0.07° warmer than the next warmest May, in 2014. I'll show the map comparisons below the fold. But first, here is the comparison plot with 1998:

Thursday, June 9, 2016

HTTPS now default on Moyhu

hoping it works. Please let me know of any problems in comments. You'll see the URL come up automatically as https:. I've taken the opportunity to reorganise the blog resources ( images, scripts), and there are many ways this could have gone astray. But I'd especially like to hear of HTTPS security warnings. I think everything, including past posts, should be HTTPS OK, but lapses are certainly possible.

As I've mentioned in previous posts here and here, I think HTTPS for blogs is nothing but a nuisance, but likely inevitable. So I thought I should retrieve something by using the needed search for HTTPS changes to change other things needed - eg images served from now uneliable sources (copied to better places). Old posts may work better now.

Also, of course, I can still at this stage turn the switch back .

Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Surface TempLS down 0.19°C in May

TempLS mesh, reported here (as of 8 June, 4221 stations), was down from 0.934°C in April to 0.744°C in May (base 1961-90). This continues the post El Nino decline noted in the NCEP/NCAR index (down 0.164) and in the satellite measures ( RSS down 0.23° UAH down 0.16). But SST is only slightly down.

The spherical harmonics map is here:

The main cool spot was in Siberia, which was very warm during El Nino. Also US, S America around Paraguay, and a spot in the N Pacific. Warm in other boreal regions, Europe, and (unusual recently) Antarctica. The breakdown shows most regions not very cool, but only moderately warm.

In other news, JAXA Ice melting has slowed in recent days, but ice is still well down on past years..