Tuesday, September 18, 2018

GISS August global down 0.01°C from July.

The GISS land/ocean temperature anomaly fell 0.01°C last month. The August anomaly average was 0.77°C, down from July 0.78°C. For the second month, the GISS report is not listed at the news page. It seems to be the fifth warmest August in the record, or, to put it another way, the coolest since 2013 (but warmer than any August before that). In some contrast TempLS rose 0.03°, but the changes are small. Satellite indices both fell considerably. In the last two months, satellite TLT rose and fell by about the same amount, while changes at surface were small.

Update I see that James Hansen and Makiko Sato have been issuing regular monthly reports as the GISS numbers are posted. The current one is here. There is a list of past reports here, where you can ask to get them by email.

The overall pattern was similar to that in TempLS. Very warm in Europe, extending to Siberia and NE Africa. .Also warm in N America, West coast and acean and NE. Cool spots in S Brazil and S Africa.

As usual here, I will compare the GISS and previous TempLS plots below the jump.

Saturday, September 8, 2018

August global surface TempLS up 0.032 °C from July.

The TempLS mesh anomaly (1961-90 base) rose a little, from 0.641°C in July to 0.673°C in August. This is opposite to the 0.067°C fall in the NCEP/NCAR index, while the UAH satellite TLT index declined more (0.13°C). There may be a reason for that discrepancy, which happened in the opposite direction last month. Although the land temperatures went down a little, SST went up, by about 0.04°C, which is quite a big month change for SST. It makes it warmest since last November, and could be the first sign of a coming El Niño influence. The reanalysis and troposphere measures do not use SST directly.

As with the reanalysis, there were few prominent patterns in the month. Cool in parts of S America, N Canada, and a large region of A Australia and adjacent ocean. Still warm in E Europe and far N Siberia, and NE USA. Antarctica was the only notably warm place (relatively). Here (from here) is the plot of relative contributions to the rise (ie components weighted by area). Note, as mentioned above, the strong effect of the SST rise on the global average:

Here is the temperature map. As always, there is a more detailed active sphere map here.




Monday, September 3, 2018

August NCEP/NCAR global surface anomaly down by 0.067°C from July

In the Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index, the monthly reanalysis anomaly average fell from 0.261°C in July to 0.194°C in August, 2018. This is a slightly greater drop than the previous month's rise, and so makes August the coldest month since July 2015 in this surface re cord. In the lower troposphere, UAH also fell by a little more, 0.13°C, than the previous month's rise.

There were few prominent patterns in the month. Cold in parts of S America, N Canada, and a large region of W Australia and adjacent ocean. Still warm in E Europe and far N Siberia, and NE USA. Contrasts in Antarctica.

BoM is still on El Niño Watch, meaning about a 50% chance, they say, but not yet happening.

Arctic Ice seems to have thawed slowly lately, with a likely September minimum about average for recent years.


Friday, August 17, 2018

GISS July global up 0.01°C from June.

The GISS land/ocean temperature anomaly rose 0.01°C last month. The July anomaly average was 0.78°C, up from June 0.77°C. The GISS report does not seem to be posted yet, or at least is not linked from their news page, but the gist is at Axios. It notes that it is the third warmest July in the record. The small rise contrasts with the downward TempLS, but the NCEP/NCAR index rose a little more. Satellite indices both rose considerably. The disagreement between GISS and TempLS is the opposite of last month, so little difference over two months.

The overall pattern was similar to that in TempLS. Very warm in Europe, extending to W Siberia and N Africa. .Also warm in N America, West coast and NE. Rather cold in Argentina and Arctic.

As usual here, I will compare the GISS and previous TempLS plots below the jump.

Tuesday, August 14, 2018

July global surface TempLS down 0.045 °C from June.

The TempLS mesh anomaly (1961-90 base) fell a little, from 0.680°C in June to 0.635°C in July. This is opposite to the 0.052°C rise in the NCEP/NCAR index, while the UAH satellite TLT index rose more (0.11°C).

The post is late again this month, and for the same odd reason. Australia submitted a CLIMAT form with about 1/3 the right number of stations, mostly SE coast. Kazakhstan, Peru were late too, but Australia is the big one. That data still isn't in. I've modified the map in the TempLS report to show the stations that reported last month (but not this) in a pale blue to show what is missing.

There were some noted heat waves, but relatively restricted in space and time. There was a big blob of heat covering Europe, N Africa and up to W Siberia. Mid Siberia was cold, as was Greenland and nearby sea, and Argentina. Arctic was cool, Antarctic warmer. N America was warm, especially W Coast and Quebec. SSTs continued rising overall.

Here is the temperature map. As always, there is a more detailed active sphere map here.




Friday, August 3, 2018

July NCEP/NCAR global surface anomaly up by 0.052°C from June

In the Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index, the monthly reanalysis anomaly average rose from 0.209°C in June to 0.261°C in July, 2018. June was cold by recent standards, so that is a modest recovery. In the lower troposphere, UAH rose more, by 0.11°C.

Notably, there were heat waves in W and N Europe, extending in a band through Russia, and into N Sahara. Parts of W and E North America were also hot, but unevenly so. Cool areas in S America and Southern Africa, and Central Siberia. The Arctic was mixed, with some cold, and the Antarctic even more so.

BoM is on El Niño Watch, meaning about a 50% chance, they say, but nothing yet.

Arctic Ice seems to have thawed rapidly lately, but there may be recent artefacts. JAXA has been irregular.


Tuesday, July 17, 2018

GISS June global down 0.06°C from May.

The GISS land/ocean temperature anomaly fell 0.06°C last month. The June anomaly average was 0.77°C, down from May 0.83°C. The GISS report notes that it is the equal third warmest June in the record. The decline contrasts with the virtually unchanged TempLS; the NCEP/NCAR index declined a little more. Satellite indices both rose a little.

The overall pattern was similar to that in TempLS. Very warm in N Central Siberia and Antarctica. Warm in most of N America, and also in Europe and Middle East. Rather cold in S America and Arctic.

As usual here, I will compare the GISS and previous TempLS plots below the jump.