Tuesday, August 15, 2023

GISS July global temperature up by 0.10°C from June.

The GISS V4 land/ocean temperature anomaly was 1.18°C in July 2023, up from 1.08°C in June. This rise is nearly the same as the 0.093°C rise reported for TempLS.

As with TempLS, July was by a large margin the warmest July in the record - next was 0.94°C in 2019. Here, in the style of my mentioned in my last post, is the graphical representation of monthly temperatures, stacked in order. The top black rectangles are the recent June and July

As usual here, I will compare the GISS and earlier TempLS plots below the jump.

Tuesday, August 8, 2023

Graphs showing the leadup to a record hot year

I posted two days ago the TempLS results for July, showing that is was 0.225°C hotter than any prvious July (2019), following on from a record hot June. These measures tipped the results to date above the previous hottest years of 2016 and 2020. But whereas those years peaked in February/March, it seems that 2023 is just getting started. So I have made some graphs to show where things stand.

The first is one of a kind that I tracked the progress of 2015 and 2016. It shows the year to date averages of recent hot years over the twelve months. It isn't ideal for 2023, because the early warmth of 2016, say, is exaggerated. I have marked with a fine grey line the previous record, which 2023 to date has just passed. But more significant are the black dots of the actual 2023 monthly temperatures. It means that if anything like the July level can be maintained, 2023 will be, so to speak, a boilover.

Next is a graphical version of the table of ordered months that I wrote about last month and added to the data page. It shows a rectangle for each of the warmer months, the top of which is the temperature for thet month,and the bottom is that of the next lower month. The annual average is to the right (year to date for 2023). The key for year colors is at the top.

It emphasises by how much June and July 2023 exceeded previous months. This could be seen as overstated, since other record-setting years have been overwritten by more recent hot months. So here now is a plot of the months as they would have shown when they set the record, ie the years descending are monotonic. That shows how the years of 2015 and 2016 were more remarkable at the time. But again, I think 2023 is just getting started.

Finally I'll show an updated plot of the time history of hot year records. It is just a regular annual plot, but with colors to show the years for which each record lasted, showing also the rapid recent rise.

Monday, August 7, 2023

July global surface TempLS up 0.093°C from June.

The TempLS FEM anomaly (1961-90 base) was 1.041°C in July, up from 0.948°C in June. It was the warmest July in the record, well ahead of 0.815°C in 2019. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis base index rose by 0.192°C.

June was already very warm, and the recent warmth makes it very likely that 2023 will be the warmest year in the record. The average to date is 0.87°C, already ahead of 0.857°C in 2016. But unlike 2016, 2023 is getting warmer, while 2016 peaked in Feb-Mar. I'll show again the table of months in descending order of warmth:

Most of the world was warm, with the only cool spots being the northern prairies of N America, and areas of Antarctica.

Here is the temperature map, using now the FEM-based map of anomalies.

As always, the 3D globe map gives better detail. There are more graphs and a station map in the ongoing report which is updated daily.