Wednesday, July 20, 2016

GISS down 0.14°C in June; NOAA up slightly

GISS was late this month. NOAA is also out - numbers here. GISS is down from 0.93°C in May to 0.79°C in June. This is more than the fall of 0.06° in TempLS, and a little more than the posted, 0.1°C fall in the NCEP/NCAR index. As Sou has noted, it is still (just) the hottest June in the GISS record.

NOAA however rose slightly, from 0.877°C to 0.899°C. TempLS grid also rose, from 0.704°C to 0.75. This is a pattern often observed in the past, where GISS follows TempLS mesh, and TempLS grid tracks NOAA. It is expected from the different ways they are constructed. I'll show the map comparisons below the fold. The updated comparison plots with 1998 are here

Friday, July 8, 2016

Surface TempLS down 0.064°C in June

TempLS mesh, reported here (as of 8 July, 4306 stations), was down from 0.746°C in May to 0.682°C in June (base 1961-90). This shows some easing the post El Nino decline also seen in the NCEP/NCAR index (down 0.1). In fact, TempLS grid rose slightly, from 0.70°C to 0.74°C. The SST component of TempLS also rose. The satellite measures varied; UAH6 Lt was down 0.21°C, but RSS only 0.06°C.

The spherical harmonics map is here:

The one notable cool spot was near Paraguay, but both high Arctic and much of Antarctic were cool. Also US, S America around Paraguay, and a spot in the N Pacific. Warm in W US, around Egypt, Alaska and part of Siberia. The breakdown shows only Antarctica (cool) as unusual. The different coverage of Antarctica is likely to lead to discrepancies, as with TempLS mesh and grid.

In other news, 2016 JAXA Ice briefly lost, then recovered its lead. It is likely to soon fall behind 2012.

Sunday, July 3, 2016

NCEP/NCAR down 0.1°C in June

The NCEP/NCAR index dropped again in June, from 0.471°C in May to 0.369°C in May (anomaly base 1994-2013). The drop is smaller than previous months, and may be a sign of levelling. We are now back in average to about Sept 2015, the first small rise of the El Nino.

 Cold in E Europe to W Siberia, most of US except E Coast, and a band of cold from Labrador/Greenland into the N Atlantic. Warm in Arctic and Canada, and the reanalysis still has the ENSO region fairly warm. Globally, the temperature rose somewhat at end of month.

In other news, UAH V6 also dropped considerably, from 0.55°C to 0.34°C. Arctic Sea Ice recovered somewhat (relatively), and 2016 is now not quite in the lead. Big drops in the last few days, but looking back through the record, this seems to be a feature of the end of our financial year.