tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.comments2024-03-16T02:27:38.423+11:00moyhuNick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comBlogger9327125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-71267539145803378662024-03-16T02:27:38.423+11:002024-03-16T02:27:38.423+11:00Thanks, Nick. You're correct; I'm reading ...Thanks, Nick. You're correct; I'm reading too much into the noise. I do think we'll be back where we were prior to June-July 2023, however. As you show with your NCEP/NCAR, we are heading down, and we're still in El Niño territory. Batmannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-12061243398959112302024-03-14T15:07:31.708+11:002024-03-14T15:07:31.708+11:00Hi Batman,
Doing well, thanks. On UAH, TLT reading...Hi Batman,<br />Doing well, thanks. On UAH, TLT readings do tend to respond very strongly to ENSO events. I think that has been happening right through.<br /><br />My NCEP/NCAR graph on the data page is quite similar to JRA. It is certainly on the way down, but hardly La Niña-like. The average so far for March is 0.699; May last year was 0.37C.<br />Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-40313225554933558682024-03-14T10:17:27.970+11:002024-03-14T10:17:27.970+11:00Hi Nick,
I hope you are doing well. I am just rea...Hi Nick,<br /><br />I hope you are doing well. I am just reaching out to ask why UAH LT has consistently overreported for the past 2 months compared to the surface.<br /><br />And what do you think of JRA-55? It shows that the spike since May 2023 has largely reverted. We're approaching La Niña-like levels now.<br /><br />https://climatlas.com/temperature/jra55/jra55_globe_t2m_recent_2023.png<br />Batmannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-52840535426665683442024-03-12T14:53:31.266+11:002024-03-12T14:53:31.266+11:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-40359653565328622802024-03-08T04:45:09.862+11:002024-03-08T04:45:09.862+11:00February would need to reach142 in GISS for the 6-...February would need to reach142 in GISS for the 6-month average to be exactly 0.16C higher than the peak 6 month average from 2015-2016. So this El Nino definitely peaked earlier (September v. February) (absent a 2nd peak), but whether or not it is weaker depends on what the next month or two look like. -Marcus <br /><br />Also, using a 7 month average, then Feb only needs to reach 141. And if March continues to be warm, then we could consider looking at an 8 month average, in which case, the Feb/March average would only have to reach 121 for this El Nino to match 2015/2016. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-21507932611925225142024-03-07T19:08:41.165+11:002024-03-07T19:08:41.165+11:00Thank you - will see. The GISS anomaly for Jan -24...Thank you - will see. The GISS anomaly for Jan -24 was 1.21 so it must up by 0.16 to beat the value for Feb. -16 at 1.37 - which is exact the change you reported for TempLS. However, considering the expected gradual increase in 8 years (i.e. around 0.16 C), it seems clear that the current Nino is both weaker and peaked earlier than the 2015-16 Nino.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-24986508028628055022024-03-07T12:00:38.539+11:002024-03-07T12:00:38.539+11:00Yes. My NCEP/NCARindex had it slightly lower too. ...Yes. My <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR" rel="nofollow">NCEP/NCARindex</a> had it slightly lower too. It's worth remembering that reanalysis is not very homogeneous over time, and 8 years might be too long for comparison.<br /><br />It's obviously close. I think more likely than not that GISS will report a record.<br />Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-82216577467738347872024-03-07T09:05:49.718+11:002024-03-07T09:05:49.718+11:00Thank you for the report! The NCEP/NCAR February a...Thank you for the report! The NCEP/NCAR February anomaly seems to be lower than the 2016 anomaly, as far as I can see from Karsten Haustain's page http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php (0.599 in 2024 vs 0.819 in 2016). In your own series with anomaly base years 1994-2013 you report 0.809 for Feb -24 vs 0.839 for Febr 2016. Do you think the GISS anomaly for Feb -24 will be a record high? best regards. T. Klemsdal, NorwayAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-58835974672565187422024-02-29T03:08:40.107+11:002024-02-29T03:08:40.107+11:00Nick, do you have an email? I need to talk to you ...Nick, do you have an email? I need to talk to you about something serious, regarding safety.Walter Hoglenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-10746970487477401562024-02-27T16:53:56.632+11:002024-02-27T16:53:56.632+11:00Yes, the Moyhu daily index shows the same
https://...Yes, the Moyhu daily index shows the same<br />https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR<br />And yes, I think there is life in it yet<br />Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-85275154827906422612024-02-27T02:51:59.404+11:002024-02-27T02:51:59.404+11:00The first half of February was astoundingly warm a...The first half of February was astoundingly warm again, but the 2nd half looks like it is coming down to Earth (https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world) - but suggestive that the El Nino didn't just shift earlier, but may be a longer, stronger El Nino than the 2015/2016 version. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-35325587713031450442024-02-19T12:46:24.471+11:002024-02-19T12:46:24.471+11:00Yes, it's anunuusually large discrepancy betwe...Yes, it's anunuusually large discrepancy between GISS and TempLS. I'll look into it.<br />NOAA looks more like TempLS, at low resolution<br />https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/mappingNick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-45397222153036454532024-02-18T17:04:54.707+11:002024-02-18T17:04:54.707+11:00Something looks wrong with western North America.Something looks wrong with western North America.Ccenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-88165461699519591612024-02-08T13:30:20.890+11:002024-02-08T13:30:20.890+11:00Yes, I was wondering if this El Nino was just shif...Yes, I was wondering if this El Nino was just shifted early, or if it would still peak in the early spring like other El Ninos... January is slightly suggestive of the latter, but looking at Climate Reanalyzer the end of January looks fairly exceptional again, which is evidence for the former...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-72411082289704127962024-02-08T09:36:01.089+11:002024-02-08T09:36:01.089+11:00Hi Marcus,
2016 reached its peak in Feb-Mar. I thi...Hi Marcus,<br />2016 reached its peak in Feb-Mar. I think this El Nino may be on the way down;, with the very warm months starting in June 2023. The earlier event warmed up in Oct 2015. Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-14463261593220998832024-02-08T01:33:22.199+11:002024-02-08T01:33:22.199+11:00Actually, I guess the anomaly relative to 1961-199...Actually, I guess the anomaly relative to 1961-1990 basically gives the answer to that question. Just to double check, I looked at the median GISTEMP anomaly in the 2003-2023 period (relative to 1951-1980) to make sure there wasn't any sort of seasonal pattern in the medians relative to the baseline, and there doesn't seem to be.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-3245099650645764432024-02-08T01:23:29.224+11:002024-02-08T01:23:29.224+11:00January did not break the record by as much as pre...January did not break the record by as much as previous Januaries, but I'm curious: is that because January wasn't as abnormally hot, or because the previous Januaries were more abnormal? (e.g., previous El Ninos starting peaking in January, so I'd imagine that previous January records would be further from the median than previous Decembers). So, I guess what I'm asking is... how warm have each of the past 6 months been relative to the _median_ for that month (say, over the last 20 years), rather than the previous record for that month? Thanks! -MarcusAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-28757913591674458312024-02-06T15:02:10.407+11:002024-02-06T15:02:10.407+11:00Yes, a mistype. Here is my code fragment:
c=list(...Yes, a mistype. Here is my code fragment:<br /> c=list(r=c(1,0.5322),b=c(0.1782,-0.6687,1.1220,-0.8133)), <br /> a=list(r=0:1,b=c(0.1123,0.1890,-0.1722,0.2326)), <br /> b=list(r=0:1,b=c(-0.0885,-0.3568,0.8331,-1.0023)) <br /><br />Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-33912798480035405662024-02-06T14:33:50.403+11:002024-02-06T14:33:50.403+11:00Thanks. I'll check the b0; looks like I mis-ty...Thanks. I'll check the b0; looks like I mis-typedNick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-31251827929152206292024-02-06T06:39:44.875+11:002024-02-06T06:39:44.875+11:00Many thanks for posting this. I first tried a simp...Many thanks for posting this. I first tried a simple power series but of course the ends did not match perfectly. Your approach to anchoring the ends is a master stroke. My a coefficients match yours; my c match your b; and my b match your c except my b0 = 0.1782 (compare to your c0 = 0.782 -- curious missing 1!). Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-45415719750276949462024-01-15T20:48:48.014+11:002024-01-15T20:48:48.014+11:00Walter,
"He also cited in his references (#32...Walter,<br /><i>"He also cited in his references (#32) Fall et al. 2011, of which he was also an author, but you and Nick didn't address that."</i><br /><br />Who else didn't address it is WUWT, in the 2022 article on the report, or the report itself. Yes, there is a footnote 32 in the "bombshell" report, but what it says is:<br /><br /><i>"After an extensive peer-reviewed process, the Surface Stations project authors published a 2011 report coming to a very different conclusion than the NCDC authors.32 The paper incorporated comprehensive data analysis from both well-sited and poorly-sited stations, using a larger sample size of stations than NCDC’s 2010 report, while remaining true to the NCDC’s rating approach. The 2011 paper concluded, “According to the best-sited stations, the diurnal temperature range (DTR) in the lower 48 states has no century-scale trend.”33"</i><br /><br />Not a difference in trend of temperature, but a difference in trend of diurnal range. Weak tea. The Fall et al Fig 4 showed that the adjusted Tavg showed no trend difference at all with CRN rating. For TMAX, CRN class 1/2 showed the highest trend, balanced by a low trend for Tmin.<br />Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-48060217119754074382024-01-15T17:57:04.841+11:002024-01-15T17:57:04.841+11:00What I am doing is preliminary, but I am currently...What I am doing is preliminary, but I am currently exploring the impact of poor station siting on temperature distribution for a single month. My findings suggest that inadequate placement reduces variability in the daily diurnal cycle, consequently affecting variability in the daily average, the monthly average, and ultimately the annual average. Station B (green) is placed on a sidewalk; I know this because I have visited the station. <br /><br />https://imgur.com/pXBtqbJ<br /><br />https://imgur.com/Mn2NYy9<br /><br />Walter R. Hoglenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-134807285823454502024-01-15T17:05:40.736+11:002024-01-15T17:05:40.736+11:00He did include in his report the effect that poor ...He did include in his report the effect that poor station siting has on the trend over time from 1979 to 2008. The effect was almost double when compared to stations that were properly sited. He also cited in his references (#32) Fall et al. 2011, of which he was also an author, but you and Nick didn't address that. Walter R. Hoglenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-50547784061058032492024-01-11T06:48:19.104+11:002024-01-11T06:48:19.104+11:00Thanks, Anon
Fixed. I'm having intermittent tr...Thanks, Anon<br />Fixed. I'm having intermittent troubles with the automatic upload facility which only seems to affect these files. Hope to get it finally sorted soon.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-9351989882266730982024-01-11T06:21:40.250+11:002024-01-11T06:21:40.250+11:00The Daily Reanalysis Temperature Data is showing u...The Daily Reanalysis Temperature Data is showing up as an empty box, Nick.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com