Monday, April 5, 2021

March global surface TempLS up 0.252°C.

The TempLS mesh anomaly (1961-90 base) was 0.752deg;C in March, up from 0.5°C in February. That not only makes up for the steep drop going into February; it leaves March considerably warmer than Dec or Jan, getting back to the warmth of 2020. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis also bounced back, but only to about January levels.

There were two prominent warm spots, in Canada/N US, where Feb was very cold, and in E Siberia/N China. N Europe was quite warm. The ENSO region seems to be fairly neutral.

Here is the temperature map, using the LOESS-based map of anomalies.


As always, the 3D globe map gives better detail.

Sunday, March 14, 2021

GISS February global down by 0.17°C from January.

The GISS V4 land/ocean temperature anomaly was 0.67°C in February 2021, down from 0.84°C in January. This matched the 0.2°C reduction reported for TempLS, although with further data that has shrunk to a 0.143C fall. Jim Hansen notes that it was historically cool, although the four Februarys in 2011-2014 were cooler.

As usual here, I will compare the GISS and earlier TempLS plots below the jump.

Friday, March 5, 2021

February global surface TempLS down 0.2°C; coolest month since Feb 2014.

The TempLS mesh anomaly (1961-90 base) was 0.442deg;C in February, down from 0.642°C in January. December and January were down about 0.2°C from earlier months, so that is getting quite cool. Last time it was this cool was Feb 2014, at 0.389°C. There was a smaller 0.08°C drop in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis base index.

The prominent feature was a cold band in N America extending from Alaska to Texas. N Russia was also very cold. There was a warmer band to the south, from Centralk Asia into China. The Arctic was also relatively warm.

Here is the temperature map, using the LOESS-based map of anomalies.


As always, the 3D globe map gives better detail.

Saturday, February 13, 2021

GISS January global up by 0.06°C from December.

The GISS V4 land/ocean temperature anomaly was 0.86°C in January 2021, up from 1.10°C in December. TempLS however reported little change. Jim Hansen notes that it was much cooler than last year, being only the sixth warmest January in the record.

As usual here, I will compare the GISS and earlier TempLS plots below the jump.

Saturday, February 6, 2021

January global surface TempLS same as December (cool).

The TempLS mesh anomaly (1961-90 base) was 0.62deg;C in January, also 0.62°C in December. That followed a large drop from 0.877°C in November. There was a small 0.0008°C rise in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis base index.

The prominent feature was a cold band through Siberia, extending into central Asia. The corresponding parts of N America were very warm. Eastern Europe was warm, extending into N Africa. Antarctica was cold.

Here is the temperature map, using the LOESS-based map of anomalies.


As always, the 3D globe map gives better detail.

Friday, January 15, 2021

GISS reports 2020 as warmest year (virtual tie with 2016).

GISS reports 2020 as warmest year (virtual tie with 2016).

The GISS V4 land/ocean temperature anomaly was 0.81°C in December 2020, down from 1.13°C in November. That made the 2020 average 1.02°C, to 2 decimals the same as 2016. NOAA, like TempLS, had 2020 very slightly behind (by 0.02°C, vs TempLS 0.005°C).

None of these differences are significant. I calculated that if just one week had been 0.26°C warmer in 2020, TempLS would have rated 2020 warmest. In mid-December, the daily average fell by about 0.4°C and stayed low. If that had been delayed by a week, that would have made the difference.

Jim Hansen's report, with many more details, is here.

As usual here, I will compare the GISS and earlier TempLS plots below the jump.

Wednesday, January 6, 2021

TempLS global surface 2020 just cooler than 2016 (virtual tie).

TempLS December 2020 results are in, and that makes a complete average for 2020. I had calculated that a December average anomaly (1961-90) of over 0.681°C would be enough to make 2020 the hottest year, which seemed quite likely, given the November average was 0.891°C and the lowest month of 2020 to date was 0.704°C. However, December was very cool, at 0.628°C, a drop of 0.263°C. That meant that 2020 averaged 0.852°C, whereas 2016 was 0.857°C. Here is a table of those TempLS anomaly averages:
Nov 20200.891Ave 20160.857
Dec 20200.628Ave 20200.852
Diff0.263Diff0.005

The TempLS result is based on 8603 land stations of GHCN V4 which have reported to date, along with ERSST. More (about 800) land stations will post results during January, and this will alter the result a little. An increase of 0.054°C needed to put 2020 ahead is possible, but not very likely. TempLS usually matches GISS NASA fairly well, but given the closeness, whether GISS 2020 comes out ahead is not predictable from this.

The cool December was foreshadowed in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis tracking, which also showed a drop of 0.263°C. The first part of the month was warm, but after about ten days there was a drop of about 0.4°C, and no recovery.

The main very cool region was over Kazakhstan and parts of Russia nearby, with an extension over Mongolia and into China. The ENSO region of the Pacific coast, and also SE, was cool (La Nina). Elsewhere it was mostly (relatively) warm, especially around the Arctic, extending into Canada and Scandinavia. Most of Europe was warm, and also the Sahara.

Here is the temperature map, using the LOESS-based map of anomalies.


 
As always, the 3D globe map gives better detail.