China GHCN data was late, but is now in (report here). The global average temperature was 0.694°C, slightly up from Jan 0.674. A small rise, but January had already tied May 2014, which was the hottest month of last year. So it's a warm start to 2015. The last month warmer than Feb was Nov 2013.
The map is pretty simple. A big warm band across Russia and NE Europe. Cold in E N America, but warm in the W and Akaska.
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What is the best way to estimate the GISS anomaly? TempLSmesh for Feb14 was .368. For Feb15 you show .686, an increase of 1.86%. GISS for Feb14 was .44C. That would be .8i8C. It that completely unrealistic?
ReplyDeleteJCH,
ReplyDeleteI would go by the monthly succession. GISS should be just a little more than Jan, which weas 0.75.
Otherwise by absolute diff. TLS was up by 0.318, so if GISS is too, that is 0.758.
That's still pushing .71C for the 12 months, so that would do. We will soon know.
ReplyDeleteJCH, My best guess for GISS February is 0.78, or 0.05 up compared to December. I hesitate to compare with January since it may be subject to change.
ReplyDelete(TempLS is up 0.03, NOAA Mlost up 0.06 compared with December, hence a rise of 0.04-0.05 seems appropriate for GISS.)
That would be good. ,758 and .78 are very warm, but nowhere close to the warmest months on GISS: .93, .89, .86, etc.
ReplyDeleteI change my guess to .79C, because that's really close to the .79C GISS just reported!
ReplyDeleteWith this update, January did not change, but December decreased to 0.73 and the whole year 2014 decreased with .01 to 0.67. However, we have a record warm running 12-month period..
DeleteSo, turning to March, it looks like there were no days in in March 2014 that were above NCEP .50C. The first big temp this year hit and bumped Nick's tracker to .219C. Today is .76C, and the last few days have also been very high. So there is a chance the 12 months ended March 31 could hit .72C. .05C up in 90 days over the least unlikeliest warmest year in the record. This like calling the triple-crown races for Secretariat.
ReplyDeleteWell, looking at CCI Global forecast, the global temperature anomalies will stay high until March 20, so my gut feeling is that March will be at least as hot as February..
DeleteThis morning, Nick has March at .296 and still rising. Then we will have to ride out the cold days.
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