As with TempLS, February was the warmest February in the record - next was 1.37°C in 2016.
As usual here, I will compare the GISS and earlier TempLS plots below the jump.
Here is GISS V4
And here is the TempLS V4 FEM-based plot
This post is part of a series that has now run for twelve years. The GISS data completes the month cycle, and is compared with the TempLS result and map. GISS lists its reports here, and I post the monthly averages here.
The TempLS mesh data is reported here, and the recent history of monthly readings is here. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period here which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS here.
The reporting cycle starts with the TempLS report, usually about the 8th of the month. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph now comes from a high resolution regular grid on the sphere; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a WebGL plot here.
A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:
Posts
Hi Nick,
ReplyDeleteI hope you are doing well. I am just reaching out to ask why UAH LT has consistently overreported for the past 2 months compared to the surface.
And what do you think of JRA-55? It shows that the spike since May 2023 has largely reverted. We're approaching La Niña-like levels now.
https://climatlas.com/temperature/jra55/jra55_globe_t2m_recent_2023.png
Hi Batman,
ReplyDeleteDoing well, thanks. On UAH, TLT readings do tend to respond very strongly to ENSO events. I think that has been happening right through.
My NCEP/NCAR graph on the data page is quite similar to JRA. It is certainly on the way down, but hardly La Niña-like. The average so far for March is 0.699; May last year was 0.37C.
Thanks, Nick. You're correct; I'm reading too much into the noise. I do think we'll be back where we were prior to June-July 2023, however. As you show with your NCEP/NCAR, we are heading down, and we're still in El Niño territory.
DeleteAre you getting GISS data from data.giss.nasa.gov? The site has been unreachable (at least from here) since some time in January, whether accessed directly or from the link on the main NASA site (which is accessible).
ReplyDeleteHi Peter,
Deleteyes, I list my data sources here
https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#L_intro
The GISS text data is here and visible to me
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
Seeing last weeks of March falling off on ERA5/ECMWF and NCEP/NCAR. Maybe this next report is the month where the hottest streak ends on TempLS? Looks like it'll be split across different reporting agencies. ERA5 and JRA-3Q will be hottest, but perhaps GISTEMP, NOAA, Berkeley Earth will fall under the line (in addition to NCEP/NCAR).
ReplyDeleteYes, it might. But still, March is averaging the same as January.
DeleteWell no, because the remaining days will drop the average.
DeleteWith March complete, what do you think now?
DeleteWith 1 day to go, March is 0.712 vs 0.738 for January. Down, but not hugely. There is surely a real decline coming, and maybe this is the start of it.
DeleteI've been trying to replicate as precisely as possible GISTEMP and NOAA anomalies well in advance of the monthly reports (say, within 0.02°). Is this only reasonable to do a week into the next month (as with your TempLS reports), or can it be parsed earlier from GHCNv4 and ERSSTv5 data?
DeleteYou can't do anything untill ERSST is posted, complete, usually on the 3rd or 4th. By then there are probably enough land stations for a reasonable result, but my rule for posting is to wait until 3800 stations outside US are there. That is more than 90% of final, and usually comes on about the 7th. . There should be more than enough US stations; I look for a minimum of 2500.
DeleteThat makes sense, thanks for detailed response. I assumed any analysis needs to wait until ERSST releases on the 3rd. Started doing some digging on the GHCN files and running some comparisons. Any chance you could take a preliminary look with the incomplete GHCNv4+ERSSTv5? Just very curious to see how far above/below the March 2016 anomaly March 2024 is landing.
DeleteAh I see it on the data chart now. Interesting, appears to be a virtual tie.
DeleteHi Anon,
ReplyDeleteYes, the table has a slightly different idea of what is enough to publish, and sometimes shows an early value (which is what you saw). GHCN is often a bit odd in the first days, but that figure should be pretty good. I see it has gone away again. I'm still waiting for the 7th posting, which should have appeared a couple of hours ago. Maybe it's because Sunday. That should take us over the margin.
The details are: the table works on an older criterion of total stations reporting. That gets yanked around by the US data, where stations sometimes come and go in early days, but there is always enough coverage. So for showing the map and posting, I now require 3800 non-US stations. The last value was 3785, so the next will pass 3800.
ps The preview figures are
DeleteJan 1.094, Feb 1.284, Mar 1.144
The data has come in now, so I'll post. Both the table and the automatic report are updated, with March at 1.174C. There are 3829 non-US stations.
ReplyDelete