Sunday, October 8, 2023

September global surface TempLS up 0.191°C from August. Record warm month.

The TempLS FEM anomaly (1961-90 base) was 1.292°C in September, up from 1.101°C in August. It was by far (by 0.45°C! ) the warmest September in the record well ahead of 0.842°C in 2020. It was the warmest month of any kind by a margin of 0.14°C (Feb 2016). The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis base index rose by 0.25°C.

That makes four very warm months in a row, and the recent warmth makes it almost certain that 2023 will be the warmest year in the record. The average to date is 0.946°C, well ahead of 0.857°C in 2016. But unlike 2016, 2023 is getting warmer, while 2016 peaked in Feb-Mar. I'll show the stacked plot of months in descending order of warmth:

The table from which it is derived is here.

Most of the world was warm, with the only cool spot being an area around Patagonia. Europe was quite warm.

Here is the temperature map, using now the FEM-based map of anomalies. Use the arrows for different projections.

As always, the 3D globe map gives better detail. There are more graphs and a station map in the ongoing report which is updated daily.

This post is part of a series that has now run since 2011. The TempLS mesh data is reported here, and the recent history of monthly readings is here. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period here which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS here.

The reporting cycle starts with the TempLS report, usually about the 8th of the month. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses the FEM solution on a regular near equal area grid on the sphere ; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a WebGL plot here.

A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:

  1. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report
  2. TempLS report
  3. GISS report and comparison with TempLS


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