Saturday, February 3, 2018

January NCEP/NCAR global anomaly down by 0.097°C from December

In the Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index, the monthly reanalysis anomaly average dropped from 0.328°C in December to 0.231°C in January, 2018. There was a big dip late in the month; there are some signs that it is ending. The month was close to November and June, 2017, but a little lower than both. You have to go back to July 2015 (0.164°C) to find a colder month.

AS we have heard quite a lot, it was cold in eastern N America (but warm in W). Also central Asia and Sahara/Sahel. Warm in Arctic and a lot of Europe, and still warm sea around New Zealand. Cool in tropical E Pacific (ENSO).

This post is part of a series that has now run for some years. The NCEP/NCAR integrated average is posted daily here, along with monthly averages, including current month, and graph. When the last day of the month has data (usually about the 3rd) I write this post.
The TempLS mesh data is reported here, and the recent history of monthly readings is here. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period here which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS here.

The reporting cycle starts with a report of the daily reanalysis index on about the 4th of the month. The next post is this, the TempLS report, usually about the 8th. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses a spherical harmonics to the TempLS mesh residuals; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a better resolved WebGL plot here.

A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:
  1. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report
  2. TempLS report
  3. GISS report and comparison with TempLS


  1. should be "from December" in title

    1. Oops, thanks, fixed. Actually I had fixed it in the version that disappeared, but it came back :(.

  2. The Copernicus Era-interim January temperature has been published
    The temperature has dropped 0.14 C from December, a little more than Moyhu NCEP/NCAR, but is still the fourh warmest January on record, and slightly above the long-term trendline..

  3. See all those variations on the monthly time-scale? Those are likely all related to ENSO variations.
    The more one drills down with an analytical solution to Laplace's Tidal Equations, and via precise tidal forcing according to NASA JPL ephemeris, the more accurately those fluctuations are pinned down.

    This is not blog science either. The results will be published by Wiley AGU this December in a comprehensive text called Mathematical GeoEnergy. We're looking for reviewers that can volunteer some time, tweet @whut