Sunday, January 4, 2015

Prospects for surface temperatures 2014 final

The NCEP/NCAR daily data is in now for December 2014 (here). It was an up and down month - cold start, then very warm leading up to Christmas, then cooling again. The end average was 0.212°C, which makes it a little cooler than August, but a lot warmer than November.

So it is a weakly warming influence on the cumulative sum I am tracking. I'll show below the latest plots of the various indices, in the style of this post and its predecessors; the only update is really HADCRUT. That sum dropped in November, and will be very very close to 2010. NOAA and HADSST3 are well clear, and will be a record. GISS has a fair margin, and should clear.

I'll post in a day or two on the update to TempLS mesh, which should be a better guide to the prospects for GISS.

Update: My TempLS system decides when it can run, based mainly on arrival of ERSST data. It has, and a report is here. Still a lot of land data missing, so I won't post on it for a while. I mention it here because contra NCEP/NCAR, it showed a huge rise in temperature. 0.16°C. That will change, but not greatly, I think. Warmth right across Eurasia, and even N America.
Update: On looking further, this may be an artefact from too little high latitude NH data. ERSST hasn't risen much.
The index will be a record if it ends the year above the axis. Months warmer than the 2010 average make the line head upwards.

Use the buttons to click through.


  1. ENSO ONI posted today at 0.7.


    2. WHT, the ascension to a warmest year has been interesting. Looks like enough to lift GISS over the line.

  2. HadSST3 is really quite interesting.

    The other results seem to me to be within expected levels of natural variability.

    1. Carrick,
      Yes. But remember, these are essentially detrended with the 2010 tmean. The previous max of SST3 was 1998 (just a little higher). Using that would pull the slope down a bit.

      Still, you're right. It is SST that is driving the process.