Thursday, October 3, 2019

September NCEP/NCAR global surface anomaly up 0.03°C from August

The Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index rose from 0.389°C in August to 0.419°C in September, on a 1994-2013 anomaly base. It continued the pattern of the last three months of small rises with only small excursions during the month. In fact there hasn't really been a cold spell globally since February, which is unusual. It is the warmest September since 2016 in this record.

N America was warm E of Rockies, colder W, but warm toward Alaska, extending across N of Siberia.. A large cool atch ar in N Australia and further N. Mostly cool in and around Antarctica. A warm patch N of China.

This post is part of a series that has now run for some years. The NCEP/NCAR integrated average is posted daily here, along with monthly averages, including current month, and graph. When the last day of the month has data (usually about the 3rd) I write this post.
The TempLS mesh data is reported here, and the recent history of monthly readings is here. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period here which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS here.

The reporting cycle starts with a report of the daily reanalysis index on about the 4th of the month. The next post is this, the TempLS report, usually about the 8th. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses a spherical harmonics to the TempLS mesh residuals; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a better resolved WebGL plot here.

A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:
  1. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report
  2. TempLS report
  3. GISS report and comparison with TempLS


  1. Roy Spencer has reported the warmest September on record in UAH TLT. It looks likely GISS will follow suit for the surface.

    1. Oof, GISS just missed. 0.01 short of the 2016 record. Looks like GISS is quite a bit colder in and around Antarctica than suggested by the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.