Saturday, January 12, 2019

December global surface anomaly up 0.038°C from November - ECMWF reanalysis

Usually I would have my analyses out by now, but as explained, the data I need is not available yet due to the US government shutdown. I'll post, with 2018 discussion, when they are available. However, the ECMWF, via Copernicus, is not subject to that shutdown, and their reanalysis data is out. A CSV listing of monthly global and European surface average is here. Relative to 1981-2010, November was 0.430°C; December was 0.468°C.

A description of relevant ECMWF data on average monthly temperature is here.

I won't try to summarise the features of the month; ECMWF has a very detailed description in their December report. I'll just show their map, which includes Europe too:

The ECMWF also reports on the year's result; 2018 was the fourth warmest year in the record, after 2016, 2017, 2015. Details and links here. Most surface records including TempLS will report the same ranking.


  1. I've been tracking monthly GMSTA from both ERAI adjusted and CFSV2 and they both compare well to the various land air plus SST composite indices since 2011 when CFSV2 started. I have not seen the ERAI adjusted GMST data, so I don't know how the actual 2-meter above ground air temperature output compares with CFSV2. Today I ran across news of a new variable resolution global weather model from IBM called GRAF. It will have up to 3 km resolution over high population areas of interest. More details here.

  2. I forgot to mention, because of my long time interest in tropical cyclones, I've also been following output from ICON available at Tropical Tidbits. ICON is a global icosahedral weather model described here. And here is a sample Tropical Tidbits output for Australia temperature today. I have not seen any GMST or GMSTA output from this model, but it should be feasible.

  3. Thanks Nick. How hard was it to retool to use ECMWF?

    1. Hi Carrick,
      I'm just relaying ECMWF reported results here.

      I did look at what I'd have to do to replace NCEP/NCAR with ECMWF. Mainly it's just a lot more data to download - 4 per day, finer grid. Better resolution, but a global integral doesn't really need that. And there is the timing issue - here Copernicus is reporting on the 12th, but with N-N I usually report on the 3rd.

    2. Nick,
      Karsten Hausteins NCEP/ NCAR is running as usual, 2-3 days behind:

      So there must be a way to get the NCEP/NCAR data. Karsten's data are 2m air temp, 4 times daily, but I'm sure that the production of sig 995 also continues as usual..
      You could ask Karsten where he gets his data from..

      Another alternative is JRA-55. Ryan Maue did a compilation of four times daily data, running 2-3 days behind. I used to follow it but it is not free (or I can't find it ) anymore..

    3. Thanks, Olof,
      I could get the data from NCAR, but would need to register. I'll probably do that if the shutdown looks like running into next month.

  4. I just noticed today that the Tropical Tidbits website has contour maps of CFSV2 monthly climate output for the next 9 months (currently Feb-Oct) and includes temperature and precipitation anomalies that can be seen on regional and global maps as well as global maps of SST and SSTA.

    Interestingly, the SSTA monthly forecasts show the current very weak El Nino strengthening into the NH summer and early fall and looking fairly strong by October. I have no idea how well the CFSV2 has been handling ENSO SSTA conditions over the last few years, so I'm not sure what to make of the strengthening El Nino prediction.

    I attempted to include a direct link to the Tropical Tidbits CFSV2 monthly SSTA forecast page but got this error message on submittal:
    "Your HTML cannot be accepted: Reference "<https:" is not allowed: A"

    The CFSV2 forecast can be found at the https Tropical Tidbits link that was accepted in my previous comment above (for Australia temperature), by clicking on the "Climate" button near the top right of the page and then selecting "CFS Monthly" and then selecting the appropriate regions and parameters from the boxes below the map.

  5. Bryan
    I've been following the global SST anomaly time series at Tropical Tidbits for about a year now, but it only shows the most recent 3 month period. Is a longer term time series available? Maybe the past 5 years?

    1. Snape, I've also been following the Tropical Tidbits SSTA time series, but have not seen anything longer than the latest 3 months. That web site appears to be focused on recent weather/climate rather than longer-term historical.

  6. Nick I don't know how you do it... re Mathematical modeling illusions, but good on you.