Friday, January 19, 2018

GISS December global up 0.02°C; 2017 was second warmest.

GISS warmed slightly, going from 0.87°C in November to 0.89°C in December (GISS report here). That is very similar to TempLS mesh; I originally reported no change, but later data pushed that up to a 0.04°C rise. For GISS, that makes 2017 the second warmest year in their record; behind 2016 but ahead of 2015. Their report, with the annual summary too, is here. I showed some aspects of 2017 annual in context here, and I'll do that for GISS and other indices in an upcoming post.

The overall pattern was similar to that in TempLS. Cold in east N America and Mediterranean and far East Siberia. Very warm in most of Russia, and in the Arctic. A cool La Nina-ish plume, but warm in the Tasman sea.

As usual here, I will compare the GISS and previous TempLS plots below the jump.

Here is GISS

And here is the TempLS spherical harmonics plot

This post is part of a series that has now run for six years. The GISS data completes the month cycle, and is compared with the TempLS result and map. GISS lists its reports here, and I post the monthly averages here.
The TempLS mesh data is reported here, and the recent history of monthly readings is here. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period here which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS here.

The reporting cycle starts with a report of the daily reanalysis index on about the 4th of the month. The next post is this, the TempLS report, usually about the 8th. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses a spherical harmonics to the TempLS mesh residuals; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a better resolved WebGL plot here.

A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:
  1. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report
  2. TempLS report
  3. GISS report and comparison with TempLS


  1. Nick, I notice the La Nina type pattern in the tropical Pacific showing in the GISS contours is not resolved very well in your contours. Is that a smoothing issue?

    1. Bryan,
      Yes. You'll see that generally the Spherical Harmonics tend to give rather circular blobs. That reflects the shapes of basis functions. They don't do a good job of picking up an ENSO-shaped plume.

    2. ENSO is a special case, reflecting the reduced symmetry and boundaries set for by the equator.
      By solving the Navier-Stokes equations (i.e. Laplace's tidal equations) along the equator, I can analytically fit the standing wave dipoles that occur and give rise to the characteristic patterns of ENSO.

      I predict that this approach and applying the concept of topological insulators to specific climate behaviors as suggested by Brad Marston will quickly advance our understanding of ENSO and QBO. But with topological insulators, the dynamics aren't created spontaneously, as some forcing function is required. That forcing is the lunisolar gravitational path, which think Marston will soon piece together.

  2. GISS discussed by the GISS people:

    Global Temperature in 2017

    Therefore, because of the combination of the strong 2016 El Niño and the phase of the solar cycle, it is plausible, if not likely, that the next 10 years of global temperature change will leave an impression of a ‘global warming hiatus’.

    On the other hand, the 2017 global temperature remains stubbornly high, well above the trend line (Fig. 1), despite cooler than average temperature in the tropical Pacific Niño 3.4 region (Fig. 5), which usually provides an indication of the tropical Pacific effect on global temperature7. Conceivably this continued temperature excursion above the trend line is not a statistical fluke, but rather is associated with climate forcings and/or feedbacks. The growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated in the past decade.3 There is also concern that polar climate feedbacks may accelerate.8

    Therefore, temperature change during even the next few years is of interest, to determine whether a significant excursion above the trend line is underway.

    I lean to the 2nd paragraph.

  3. Here is a summary of the prediction for the GISS temperature anomaly of 2017 by my regression model presented in the prospects for 2016/2017 threads.
    Jan16 0.87+-0.19
    Feb16 0.87+-0.19
    Mar16 0.86+-0.18
    Apr16 0.87+-0.16
    May16 0.88+-0.15
    Jun16 0.88+-0.15
    Jul16 0.87+-0.15
    Aug16 0.89+-0.14
    Sep16 0.87+-0.14
    Oct16 0.87+-0.14
    Nov16 0.87+-0.14
    Dec16 0.88+-0.12
    Jan17 0.88+-0.11
    Feb17 0.92+-0.10
    Mar17 0.92+-0.07
    Apr17 0.91+-0.06
    May17 0.93+-0.06
    Jun17 0.89+-0.05
    Jul17 0.90+-0.05
    Aug17 0.89+-0.04
    Sep17 0.88+-0.03
    Oct17 0.89+-0.03
    Nov17 0.89+-0.02
    Final 0.90
    Surprisingly good...