Since I wrote in October about a new scheme for early mesh-based TempLS reporting, I've been looking forward to producing such an early result. Last month didn't work, because GHCN was late. But this month everything is on time. For me, there is added interest, because I developed the daily NCEP/NCAR based index, and it has been suggesting a perhaps unexpected drop in November temperature.
The early TempLS mesh report is now out, and it does show a corresponding drop, from 0.647°C (Oct) to 0.557°C (Nov, base 1961-1990). The Oct value also came back a little, which reduced the difference slightly.
It is indeed a very early report, and will change. 3108 stations, probably about 70% of final. There is essentially no data from Canada, China, Australia, and most of S America and Africa. So it's too early to have much faith in the regional map, but the cold in the US certainly showed up.
Both satellite indices showed small reductions, with RSS going from 0.274°C to 0.246°C, and UAH similar. In terms of a record warm 2014, I think the likelihood is essentially unchanged.
Update 8/12 With most GHCN data now in, TempLS has risen a bit, to 0.579°C. But the NCEP/NCAR measure went the other way. It stayed cold in November, with the average down to 0.106°C, and December (to 4th) has been cold too.
Thursday, December 4, 2014
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ENSO ONI just reported in at +0.5. El Nino lite is in the house. December could rebound from November.
ReplyDeleteGISS number is out and it's 0.65 - in a very good concordance with your TLSmesh. December would have to equal that for a record.
ReplyDeleteThanks, DK. Actually, TempLS crept up a bit with new data, so the GISS drop is greater.
DeleteI think the record is in some doubt. According to the NCEP/NCAR index, December started cool.
I think the record is in no doubt . With the current NASA data, December anomaly only needs to be +0.56 for an absolute record.
DeleteThat's not what I'm getting. Anyway, in the press NOAA appears to be the series used to determine warmest year.
DeleteI just doubled checked:
Deletehttp://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
(Sum(2010)-Sum(2014))/100=0.55
NOAA will be released on Monday and I don't know if it fudges data like NASA does but as of October its numbers require only +0.98 for November+December. Take it to the bank that it absolutely will happen.
I re-checked the numbers. Yes, with the current table, +0.56 in December is all it takes (assuming previous number don't change).
DeleteAnyway, in the press NOAA appears to be the series used to determine warmest year
DeleteThen we've got a record already! November from NOAA was released today, also +0.65C. With their new much cooler 2010, the only way 2014 won't be at record high is if the anomaly in December will be negative in relation to the 20th century average. Needless to say, this is practically impossible.
DK - yes, NOAA has looked like a lock. Nick has implied the same thing. But I think GISS is in doubt:
DeleteWhat am I doing wrong?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:2005/to:2006/plot/gistemp/from:2010/to:2011/plot/gistemp/from:2014
2005 - .65C
2010 - .6575
2014 thru Nov - .667232
.647768 to tie. .647768 plus .667232 equals 1.315. 1.315/2 = .6575
I find it easier and more intuitive to do this fool-proof calculation:
DeleteCalculate total annual anomaly (add up all monthly numbers): 2005 - 7.80, 2010 - 7.89, 2014 - 7.43. But there will be one more month in 2014, so the minimum anomaly in 2014 required for an absolute record is (7.89-7.34)+0.01=0.56. How likely is 0.56? I say VERY likely!
1. Mean December value for years 1998-2013 is not that far, 0.51
2. You yourself mentioned "El Nino Lite" - perhaps that is why
2a. http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/ so far paints a picture of pretty warm December and forecasts more warmth in a coming week.
2b. Nick's NCEP treatment suggest that December might very well end up being warmer than November: http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR
2c. Visual inspection of daily satellite maps also suggests that December 2014 so far is warmer than December 2013.
3. Even if 2b and 2c above won't hold by the end of the year, there is still a sizable margin before a record is not set (0.09 in the case of 2b or 0.04 in the case of 2c).
So, all in all, I'd bet heavily that GISS will set up the record (with their latest adjusted numbers - colder 2010 and warmer 2014).
I find it easier and more intuitive to do this fool-proof calculation:
DeleteCalculate total annual anomaly (add up all monthly numbers): 2005 - 7.80, 2010 - 7.89, 2014 - 7.43. But there will be one more month in 2014, so the minimum anomaly in 2014 required for an absolute record is (7.89-7.34)+0.01=0.56. How likely is 0.56? I say VERY likely!
1. Mean December value for years 1998-2013 is not that far, 0.51
2. You yourself mentioned "El Nino Lite" - perhaps that is why
2a. http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/ so far paints a picture of pretty warm December and forecasts more warmth in a coming week.
2b. Nick's NCEP treatment suggests that December might very well end up being warmer than November: http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR
2c. Visual inspection of daily satellite maps also suggests that December 2014 so far is warmer than December 2013.
3. Even if 2b and 2c above won't hold by the end of the year, there is still a sizable margin before a record is not set (0.09 in the case of 2b or 0.04 in the case of 2c).
So, all in all, I'd bet heavily that GISS will set the record (with their latest adjusted numbers - colder 2010 and warmer 2014).
P.S. I find that my comments here are randomly deleted - I see them posted but within a minute or two they disappear. I am pretty sure that I don't have anything uncivil in those deleted posts. This is a second attempt.
DK,
DeleteSorry about the comments problem. It's not anything I did, but they did go through to spam. I've released them, to reassure Blogger. You can delete them if you like - there is an option to make them disappear completely. I'll keep watch - it's a long time since Blogger has made that error.
Thanks for the tip about NOAA. You may have seen my new post on that. I'm being cautious about GISS, but I think the chances are still pretty fair. NCEP/NCAR seems to dip rather easily.
I refer to the two halves of ENSO neutral - negative ONI and positive ONI - as either La Nina lite or El Nino lite because I think you can often detect their presence almost instantly in the SAT. The AMO cooled this month and I expect the PDO will do the same, so my guess is the ENSO region has to warm to offset that for GISS to make the mark. And it appears to be doing that. To me this is a very interesting year to watch this unfold.
DeleteThey bumped September way up. Lol. Grassy knoll!
ReplyDeleteThey modified most (not all) of the months in 2014. They also corrected February 2010 by -0.01! So now the record is all but guaranteed.
DeleteThis is Wood for Trees 2010 prior to the November update: 0.6575C
DeleteWhoops, it updated after I checked it this afternoon, so that's probably the updated number.
DeleteI see August/Sep went up;May, June July came down, though not as much.
Deletehere are the pre-update numbers for 2014, currently on latest data page:
68 43 70 71 78 61 52 69 76 76
And now:
68,43,70,71,77,60,49,74,81,76,65
Between November and September 2014 datasets, a total annual anomaly was corrected for 15 years since 1998: for 12 to slightly less and for 3 slightly up:
Delete1998 -0.02
1999 -0.02
2000 -0.02
2001 -0.02
2002 -0.04
2003 -0.02
2004 0.00
2005 -0.02
2006 -0.01
2007 -0.01
2008 0.02
2009 0.03
2010 -0.01
2011 0.01
2012 -0.01
2013 -0.01