Monday, October 31, 2011

GWPF is wrong, warming has not stopped.

The Daily Mail says that BEST results show that global warming has stopped, citing this graph from the GWPF. And there's an interview with Judith Curry talking about someone "hiding the decline".

Tamino has quite correctly taken this apart. This is his version of the GWPF graph:

As he points out, the claim of no warming is dependent on the dip in April/May 2010. Without it, there is warming, pretty much as expected.

So I checked the BEST data.txt to see why these month data had such large error bars, and were so out of line. It turns out that all the data they have for those months is from 47 Antarctic stations. By contrast, in March 2010 they have 14488 stations.

How this could have happened, I don't know. Anyway, a list of those 47 stations below the jump.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

A Javascript index for Moyhu

A Javascript index for Moyhu

I have always tried to maintain an index for Moyhu. It's one of the pages you'll see listed at top right. But there are now 144 posts, and the system needs upgrading. So I made this another exercise in my program to learn Javascript.

The old index, which I'll keep for a few days until this one settles, had posts listed in topic order and then time order. That pretty much kept it to one topic per post. In the new scheme, you'll see below a table of labelled buttons. Click on any one, and related post links will appear in the space below. They should be in time order, newest first. The complete time order listing is below that.

Table of topics (click) Note - you have to have the whole post open for this to work (click Read More)

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Tuesday, October 25, 2011

BEST has same data as GHCN pre-1850

BEST extended its temperature series back a lot further than its predecessors, to about 1800. Many have assumed that this was because they have more early data, but this is not true. Their data set in this period is pretty much identical with GHCN.

You can see this from the KMZ file or the interactive Javascript plot. But I thought I should check it out in detail, so I have below a table of the actual stations, in one case from GHCNV2 (V3 is the same) and in the other BEST, taken from their data.txt file.

There are very few discrepancies. Out of about 275 pre-1850 stations, I count only 6 which BEST has and GHCN doesn't. There seem to be 9 than GHCN has that BEST doesn't, and 8 that BEST has included apparently twice. Details below the jump.

Monday, October 24, 2011

World coverage by decade of BEST, GHCN, GSOD and CRUTEM3

Update: I see that the plot does not show in Internet Explorer - I'm trying to find out why. It works in Firefox, Chrome and Safari.

In the previous post, I talked about a KMZ file which would display the stations of the four temperature databases, BEST, GHCN, GSOD and CRUTEM3. They were set in folders so that different starrting dates could be displayed.

This post provides a JavaScript interactive display with the same general intent. There are a total of 52 images, each showing a single database in a single decade (approx). It shows the stations that returned any data in that decade.

Here you see just a single image. There are two legends, one with decade and one with database. You can click on the legend to bring up any combination. There is a control with a square and four triangles. The triangles just navigate up and down the menus in the way they point. The square enables you to toggle rapidly between the last two images shown. The intent is that you can set up pairings and compare.

Saturday, October 22, 2011

A combined KMZ file for BEST, GHCN, GSOD and CRUTEM3

Update I have modified the ALL4.kmz file, which you can download here. I updated the data.txt file, where BEST had mistakenly posted the MAX file. And I found the problem which had led to the previous version showing very little early BEST data. BEST had a  column saying how many days in each month had readings, and I set a filter to require at least 10 days. However, much of the early period had this set to -99, which meant the data was rejected. I have removed the filter, and now there are a lot of pre-1850 sites.

This is a development foreshadowed in the previous post. I have put a combined .kmz file with data from 4 land station datasets. GHCN is actually v2, but there is very little difference at this level between v2 and v3. CRUTEM3 is the version released in July, discussed here. GSOD was discussed here.

There is now much more information - in fact, when you open the file in Google Earth, it looks colorful but cluttered. The pushpins are colored according to dataset - yellow for BEST, green for GHCN, red for GSOD, and a sort of dull green for CRUTEM3. They also vary in size - the smallest has 0-30 years of data, next has 31-60, and the largest has more than 60.

But the key to looking it is that the data is stored in folders. At the top level, there is a folder for each dataset. At the next level down, they are classified according to start year of data. The ranges are 0-1850, 1851-80, 1881-1900,1901-1920, 1921-30, 1931-40, 1841-50, 1951-60, 1961-70, 1971-80, 1981-90, 1991-2000, and 2001-2011. As I'll show in the next picture, in Google earth you can toggle on/off at any level. If a dataset is on, you can toggle the year folders. If you want to see in any set the years before 1921, just toggle off the later folders.

Update - I had a warning briefly that there were spurious sites in the BEST folder. These had start years of -9.9999 and so went into the pre-1950 folder. That is fixed, but there's a new problem that the pre-1850 folder is almost empty. That could be real, but the BEST Team have done analyses for this period. See below for a discussion of the data.Fixed

The Start year, End year and Duration have been added to the pop-up balloon that you get by clicking on a station. The file is called ALL4.kmz, and can be found here.

Here's a GE snapshot of the toggle facility. You have to click on a few +s to see this. GSOD and CRUTEM3 are not visible. BEST shows only stations with data before 1971. GHCN is visible, but you'd have to open that menu to see which years. I had it matching BEST.

Added: To get the data years for BEST, I used the data.txt file in their PreliminaryTextDataset folder. That looks right, but I need to investigate to see if it includes everything. There seem to be early stations missing.

A KMZ file for the BEST stations

Update - the latest post points to a more comprehensive KMZ file
In the BEST text data zip (warning - 200 Mb), there is a listing of 36736 stations in the file site_detail.txt. I've made a KMZ file (1300 Kb), which is in the file repository under the name "best.kmz". If you download it and click on it, it will bring up Google Earth (if you have it installed) with all the stations marked with yellow pushpins.

If you click on a pushpin, a balloon will pop up with some minimal data (Name,ID's, Altitude, Lat/Lon). Later if I get some analysis done, I'll produce versions with folders, colors and more info. Here's a GE snapshot:

Friday, October 21, 2011

The Berkeley Surface Temperature (BEST) analysis

I woke up this morning and saw that the BEST analysis papers and data where online. And there were already posts at Judith Curry's, WUWT, Tamino's and Stoat, and soon one by Zeke at the Blackboard. The dynamic blogroll here put Zeke's upbeat "Some interesting results from BEST" directly above Stoat's pithier "BEST is boring".

My expectations had been somewhat more in line with Stoat's, and indeed the concensus seems to be that it confirms what had been known. But I was interested in the analysis, mainly because the claimed novelty was the least squares method that TempLS uses, which I thought David Brillinger would have improved considerably.

One of the minor surprises was that DB was not on the list of authors of the main analysis paper, despite being one of the big names on the Team. However, he is acknowledged handsomely, and the sophistication of the statistics does indicate his contribution.

There have been a number of other analyses in the last two years which, like BEST, confirm the major indices. Some were land-only, others included sea surface temperatures.

So, with that preamble, here is a very preliminary discussion, mainly of the paper Berkeley Earth Temperature Averaging Process.

Monday, October 17, 2011

GISS Sep 11 - down 0.13°C

Giss Data is out, so, as I have done recently, I'll compare with the TempLS calculation. The monthly global mean anomaly average was down from 0.61°C to 0.48°C (1951-1980 base). TempLS had a small decrease (0.025°C). NOAA had an even smaller one, UAH slightly larger, and RSS had a minute rise. Numbers and plots are here.

Below the jump are the GISS global plot and TempLS. Similar features, but GISS showed larger excursions. This is to be expected, as the TempLS fitting process has a smoothing effect.

Saturday, October 8, 2011

September GMST - TempLS down from 0.444 to 0.42

The TempLS analysis, based on GHCNV3 land temperatures and the ERSST sea temps, showed a slight cooling from August. The August temp itself came down from 0.45 °C to 0.444°C with inclusion of late data, and September's mean land/sea temperature anomaly came out as 0.42°C, relative to the 1961-1990 base period. The data and plots are at the latest ice and temperature data page.

Below is the graph (lat/lon) of temperature distribution for September. There is also an interactive world map.