“Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections"
by Patrick Michaels, John Christy, Chad Herman, Lucia Liljegren and James Annan
I presume Chip is an author too, although it isn't entirely clear. Anyway, he shows some plots, apparently from the paper, of temperature trends measured back from present to periods of from five to fifteen years. These are compared with model predictions, with the general idea of suggesting that they have been overpredicting warming. In fact, the talk pauses a couple of times to examine the phrase, written in very large font:
"Global Warming has Stopped!”
Global warming has stopped (or at least greatly slowed) and this is fast becoming a problem.Present for this paper means end 2009. So I thought it might be interesting to update with four months more data.
(Updated discussion below)
Here are the two relevant slides from the talk. They split into land instrumental and satellite:
And here are my updates, moving the starting point forward four months. I haven't seriously tried to calculate the probability bounds - they just roughly follow the original for visual comparison.
Following Carrot Eater's suggestion, the plot is animated, with the higher value using the more recent data
The new data shows that:
1. GISS trend is positive in the range
2. Hadcrut3 is weakly positive
3. NCDC is mixed
4. UAH is quite positive
5. RSS is mixed
To see what the plots might look like by end 2010 (when this paper might appear), I calculated the same trend diagram assuming that each coming month, for each index, was as warm as April 2010. Here are the plots, with the old trends shown as thinner curves:
As you'll see, not only are all trend curves decidedly positive (warming) but getting close to the central value of the models.