Monday, June 27, 2011

Northern Hemisphere proxy plots - last millenium

This is the next in what may be a series of multiple time series plotted with animated gif's in the hope of greater visual clarity.

I found at NOAA a large table of proxy-based temperature reconstruction data. The background is described in this Wiki article. For the moment, I've plotted just the Northern Hemisphere reconstructions for the last millenium. For those who like that sort of thing, I've currently omitted the instrumental curve at the end. More plots may appear later here.
Update - I misspoke here. The Mann2008g and 2008h curves are a composite including instrumental temperatures. Crowley2003b also includes instrumental, but only up to 1993.
Unrelated - I have replaced the plot with one including a few more series from the same resource. I have use a consistent anomaly base period of 1936-1965 (the most recent 30-yr period common to all). The Oerlemans set is based on glaciers and is described as global rather than NH.

Here is the plot, unsmoothed. Below the jump is a summary of the data sets.


Update:  In the listing below, I have added a number beside each bolded name. This is the number in the NOAA table as extended with HADCRUT etc. It will be useful for anyone running the code and wanting to vary the subsets chosen.

Key data: 
93 HADCRUT3NH
TITLE: Land and Sea Temperature Anomalies Northern Hemisphere
CITATION: Brohan, P., J.J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S.F.B. Tett and P.D. Jones, 2006: Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. J. Geophysical Research 111, D12106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006548
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: combined land and marine [sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from HadSST2, see Rayner et al., 2006] temperature anomalies on a 5° by 5° grid-box basis. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3nh.txt
94 Loehle
TITLE: Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstructions
CITATION: Correction to: A 2000-Year Global Temperature Reconstruction Based on Non-Tree Ring Proxies C Loehle, JH McCulloch - Energy &# 38; …, 2008 - Multi-Science Publishing Co Ltd.
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: A 2000-YEAR GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTIONBASED ON NON-TREERING PROXIES http://www.ncasi.org/programs/areas/climate/LoehleE&E2007.csv
95 MBH98
TITLE: Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries
CITATION: Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries by: M. E. Mann, R. S. Bradley, M. K. Hughes Nature, Vol. 392 (1998), pp. 779-787. doi:10.1038/33859
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: Plotted here from archived MM05 data set
1 ammann2007
TITLE: Northern Hemisphere Average Annual Temperature Reconstruction
CITATION: Ammann, C.M. and E.R. Wahl. 2007. The importance of the geophysical context in statistical evaluations of climate reconstruction procedures. Climatic Change 85:71-88. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-007-9276-x. See also companion article by Wahl and Ammann: Climatic Change, 85:33-69 (2007) DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9105-7
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: Uses multiple proxy types, input into inverse regression-truncated EOF climate field reconstruction spanning entire globe at incomplete 5x5 deg grid. Only N. Hemisphere average is reported here.
13 briffa1998
TITLE: Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstructions
CITATION: Briffa, K.R., P.D. Jones, F.H. Schweingruber and T.J. Osborn. 1998. Influence of volcanic eruptions on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature over the past 600 years. Nature 393:450-455.
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: Derived from means of 383 maximum latewood density chronologies from the northern Boreal forest.
31 crowley2000a
TITLE: Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction
CITATION: Crowley, T.J. 2000. Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years. Science 289:270-277.
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: Proxies used include tree-rings, pollen, oxygen isotopes, ice core, phenological records, historical records. Modification of reconstruction from Crowley, T.J., and T. S. Lowery. 2000. How Warm was the Medieval Warm Period. Ambio 29:51-54.
32 crowley2000b
TITLE: Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction: with instrumental records after 1860
CITATION: Crowley, T.J. 2000. Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years. Science 289:270-277.
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: Proxies used include tree-rings, pollen, oxygen isotopes, ice core, phenological records, historical records. Modification of reconstruction from Crowley, T.J., and T. S. Lowery. 2000. How Warm was the Medieval Warm Period. Ambio 29:51-54, with the instrumental record from Jones, P., M. New, D. Parker, S. Martin, and I. Rigor. 1999. Surface Air Temperature and its Changes Over the Past 150 Years. Reviews of Geophysics 37:173-199 used after 1860.
33 darrigo2006a
TITLE: Northern Hemisphere Tree-Ring-Based Temperature Reconstruction: Standard
CITATION: D'Arrigo, R., R. Wilson, and G. Jacoby. 2006. On the long-term context for late twentieth century warming. Journal of Geophysical Research 111:D03103. DOI: 10.1029/2005JD006352.
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: Standard Reconstruction (negative-exponential or straightline curve fits). Tree-ring based reconstruction from 66 high elevation and latitudinal treeline North American and Eurasian sites.
34 darrigo2006b
TITLE: Northern Hemisphere Tree-Ring-Based Temperature Reconstruction: Regional Curve Standardization
CITATION: D'Arrigo, R., R. Wilson, and G. Jacoby. 2006. On the long-term context for late twentieth century warming. Journal of Geophysical Research 111:D03103. DOI: 10.1029/2005JD006352.
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: Regional Curve Standardization (RCS) Reconstruction. Tree-ring based reconstruction from 66 high elevation and latitudinal treeline North American and Eurasian sites.
40 huang2004
TITLE: Integrated Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Reconstruction
CITATION: Huang, S. 2004. Merging Information from Different Resources for New Insights into Climate Change in the Past and Future. Geophysical Research Letters 31:L13205. DOI: 10.1029/2004GL019781.
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: Reconstruction based on borehole temperatures, the 20th century meteorological record, and multi-proxy paleoclimatic records.
43 jones1998a
TITLE: Millennial Temperature Reconstructions: Northern Hemisphere
CITATION: Jones, P.D., K.R. Briffa, T.P. Barnett, and S.F.B. Tett. 1998. High-resolution Palaeoclimatic Records for the last Millennium: Interpretation, Integration and Comparison with General Circulation Model Control-run Temperatures. The Holocene 8:455-471.
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: tree rings, ice cores, corals, and historical documents
51 mann1999
TITLE: Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium
CITATION: Mann, M.E., R.S. Bradley, and M.K. Hughes. 1999. Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations. Geophysical Research Letters 26:759-762.
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: Proxies used include tree-rings, ice cores, corals, long historical records, and long instrumental data series. Extension over 1000 AD to 1399 AD of Mann, M.E., R.S. Bradley, and M.K. Hughes. 1998. Global-Scale Temperature Patterns and Climate Forcing Over the Past Six Centuries. Nature 392:779-787.
53 mann2003b
TITLE: 2,000 Year Hemispheric Multi-proxy Temperature Reconstructions: Northern Hemisphere
CITATION: Mann, M.E. and P.D. Jones. 2003. Global Surface Temperatures over the Past Two Millennia. Geophysical Research Letters 30:1820. DOI: 10.1029/2003GL017814.
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: Tree-rings, historical records, lake sediments, ice cores, fossil shells, and boreholes. Decadally-resolved series
57 mann2008a
TITLE: 2,000 Year Hemispheric and Global Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Northern Hemisphere: Land Only: Composite Plus Scale Method
CITATION: Mann, M.E., Z. Zhang, M.K. Hughes, R.S. Bradley, S.K. Miller, S. Rutherford, and F. Ni. 2008. Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105:13252-13257. DOI:10.1073/pnas.0805721105.
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: Proxies include tree-ring, marine sediment, speleothem, lacustrine, ice core, coral, and historical documentary series. Composite reconstruction formed by averaging all validated reconstruction scenarios for the given reconstruction method and spatial target. Cf. page 13255 of original publication and Supporting Information Figures S5 and S6.
58 mann2008b
TITLE: 2,000 Year Hemispheric and Global Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Northern Hemisphere: Land and Ocean: Composite Plus Scale Method
CITATION: Mann, M.E., Z. Zhang, M.K. Hughes, R.S. Bradley, S.K. Miller, S. Rutherford, and F. Ni. 2008. Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105:13252-13257. DOI:10.1073/pnas.0805721105.
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: Proxies include tree-ring, marine sediment, speleothem, lacustrine, ice core, coral, and historical documentary series. Composite reconstruction formed by averaging all validated reconstruction scenarios for the given reconstruction method and spatial target. Cf. page 13255 of original publication and Supporting Information Figures S5 and S6.
63 mann2008g
TITLE: 2,000 Year Hemispheric and Global Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Northern Hemishpere: Land Only: Error-In-Variables Method
CITATION: Mann, M.E., Z. Zhang, M.K. Hughes, R.S. Bradley, S.K. Miller, S. Rutherford, and F. Ni. 2008. Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105:13252-13257. DOI:10.1073/pnas.0805721105.
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: Proxies include tree-ring, marine sediment, speleothem, lacustrine, ice core, coral, and historical documentary series. Error-In-Variables (EIV) based on RegEM algorithm. Composite reconstruction formed by averaging all validated reconstruction scenarios for the given reconstruction method and spatial target. Cf. page 13255 of original publication and Supporting Information Figures S5 and S6.
64 mann2008h
TITLE: 2,000 Year Hemispheric and Global Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Northern Hemisphere: Land and Ocean: Error-In-Variables Method
CITATION: Mann, M.E., Z. Zhang, M.K. Hughes, R.S. Bradley, S.K. Miller, S. Rutherford, and F. Ni. 2008. Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105:13252-13257. DOI:10.1073/pnas.0805721105.
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: Proxies include tree-ring, marine sediment, speleothem, lacustrine, ice core, coral, and historical documentary series. Error-In-Variables (EIV) based on RegEM algorithm. Composite reconstruction formed by averaging all validated reconstruction scenarios for the given reconstruction method and spatial target. Cf. page 13255 of original publication and Supporting Information Figures S5 and S6.
68 moberg2005
TITLE: 2,000-Year Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction
CITATION: Moberg, A., D.M. Sonechkin, K. Holmgren, N.M. Datsenko and W. Karlén. 2005. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature 433:613-617.
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: Reconstruction calculated by combining low-resolution proxies with tree-ring data, using a wavelet transform technique.
70 oerlemans2005
TITLE: Global Glacier Length Temperature Reconstruction
CITATION: Oerlemans, J. 2005. Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records. Science 308, No:675-677.
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: Global temperature reconstruction based on glacier length records from 169 locations.
75 smith2006
TITLE: Northern Hemisphere Speleothem Temperature Reconstruction
CITATION: Smith, C.L., A. Baker, I.J. Fairchild, S. Frisia, and A. Borsato. 2006. Reconstructing hemispheric-scale climates from multiple stalagmite records. International Journal of Climatology 26(10):1417-1424.
DESCRIPTION_SUMMARY: annual, speleothems, northern hemisphere, stalagmite layer thickness from Scotland, Italy, and China.

8 comments:

  1. Nice display, but might you experiment with slowing the animation a bit?

    ReplyDelete
  2. John,
    I've changed from a 2sec to a 4sec delay, with an initial 6sec delay.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Dear Nick,

    Thank you for this animation.

    This may be the first time I've seen reconstructions without the instrumental data overlayed.

    Two stupid questions:

    1) How is it that a number of the reconstructions end just before 2000? I thought the proxy records end in 1980.

    2) Also how does Mann in 2008g & h boldly go where none of the others go and finds a hockey stick blade even without the instrumental data?

    Best,
    Alex

    ReplyDelete
  4. Nick Stokes, thanks for the instructive animation. It paints a much different picture.

    Not to pick nits but how about looping off the instrumental record from the two Mann reconstructions - or would that be too heretical?

    Better still, for instructive value, would be to animate in the fashion you did here the proxies that make up a reconstruction.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Alex,
    I noted in the update that the Mann 2008g and 2008h curves are composites where he put just everything in that he could get, including instrumental.

    So Kenneth, I can't easily just remove the instrumental - it's not exactly tacked on. It is with the Crowley 2003b, which I hadn't originally included.

    I'll do some more plots soon, so I'll do one with these instrumentals omitted.

    Alex, on timing, it varies. I ddon't really know the answer. Here are the end dates, in the order in the legend:

    [1] "1980 AD" "1994 AD" "1965 AD" "1993 AD" "1995 AD " "1995 AD "
    [7] "1980 AD" "1991 AD" "1980 AD" "1980 AD" "1995 AD" "1995 AD"
    [13] "2006 AD" "2006 AD" "1979 AD " "1990 AD" "1987 AD "
    The two Mann composites are the ones that go to 2006.

    There's a description for each dataset, which I'll add to the big list.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Timing: better, thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I'm looking forward to smoothed versions. From the noisy ones I get:
    1. The reconstructions are mostly flattish, with some similar features, e.g. dips at 1350, 1450.
    2. The level of short term variation varies a lot. Maybe due to different levels of smoothing.
    3. The offset with respect to the reference period also varies quite significantly.
    4. There's not much MWP/little ice age contrast except in Mann 2008g and h and Moberg.
    5. Mann2003 and Oerlemans2005 are smoother than the others apart from a pronounced approximately decadal variation (solar?).

    Kevin C

    ReplyDelete
  8. Nice graph of chaos

    ReplyDelete