Not according to the satellite measures; they are showing quite a cool year so far. But surface measures, apparently propelled by SST, have been consistently high since March, and a record for calendar 2014 looks possible.
In August 2010, I showed a plot of the progress of the cumulative monthly anomaly sums, which will reach the final sum that determines the year average. 2010 did turn out to be the hottest year in many indices. It was different in that the El Nino was late 2009/10, so late 2010 was cooling. At this stage 2014 seems to be warming.
So I started to repeat that 2010-style plot, which is below the jump. It didn't work as well; the variation doesn't much show. But it puts the thing calculated in context - a cumulative sum that, if it exceeds 2010 at year end, will set a record. I've shown the progress of 2005 (a previous record), 2010 and 2014, with a line showing the 2010 average rate. The plots are spaced with an arbitrary offset.
But, more effectively, there is then an active plot with the average 2010 trend subtracted. The variation is clearer. The key thing is not so much whether the current total is above the line, but how it is trending, which is a measure of current warmth.
So here is the first plot. The TempLS measures were described in this recent thread. The absolute slope is an artefact of the anomaly base - GISS is earliest.
And here is the active plot with the 2010 average subtracted. Use the buttons to click through.
NOAA and TempLS grid are already above the line and heading up. Top candidates for a record. HADCRUT looks likely too. GISS and TempLS mesh only need a reasonable continuation of current warmth to end up positive (record). The slope is positive only when a month exceeds the average for 2010, so it doesn't take much cooling to turn down. We'll see.