""ENSO-neutral conditions continue.*
Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean.
El NiÃ±o is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.*""
I repeated this at WUWT, and someone said, but they have been saying that all year. So I ran a check on ENSO predictions.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center posts a monthly series of CDBs (Diagnostic Bulletins) here. They are full of graphs and useful information. They include compilations of ENSO predictions (Nino3.4), nicely graphed by IRI. I downloaded the plots for each month of 2014, and overlaid with the observed value from this file.
It's an active plot, so you can click through the months. The year started out with a dip, mostly unforeseen. This coincided with the global cool in February. There was then a underpredicted recovery, and since then there has been a tendency for the index to be below predictions, esp June and July.
CPC warns that only modest predictive skill is to be expected, and that is fortified by the spread in forecasts. The index does indeed seem to move beyond the predicted range rather easily. It's not always overpredicted, though.
Here is the active plot. Just click the top buttons to cycle through the 9 months. The thick black overlay line are the monthly observations.
You'll see some minor discrepancies at the start. I don't think this is bad graphing - I assume minor changes to Nino3.4 between the monthly report and now. It looks like maybe a scaling error, but I don't think it is. I should note that I'm plotting the monthly value, while the foecasts are for three minth averages. I wanted to match the initial, which is one month. But Nino3.4 does not have much monthly noise, so I don't think averages would look much different.