tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post5768740369125437492..comments2024-03-28T13:56:47.604+11:00Comments on moyhu: Checking ENSO forecastsNick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-28073321443111021662014-11-08T01:28:05.129+11:002014-11-08T01:28:05.129+11:00My submitted paper on ENSO model is on ARXIV
http...My submitted paper on ENSO model is on ARXIV<br /><br />http://arxiv.org/abs/1411.0815<br /><br />Forget the red noise models. I assert that ENSO, and thus the earth's decadal variability, is close to deterministic and largely predictable.<br /><br /><br />@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-18424016579360601612014-10-27T04:33:08.385+11:002014-10-27T04:33:08.385+11:00A bunch of armchair weather prognosticators are go...A bunch of armchair weather prognosticators are going at it <br />http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/26/yes-virginia-and-everyone-else-there-is-an-el-nio-coming/<br />Bastardi thinks that the solar activity is some sort of factor. He is seeing a sharp recent downward spike in the SOI<br /><br />I tried to parameterize the TSI and applied it to the SOI model<br />http://azimuth.mathforge.org/discussion/1504/symbolic-regression-machine-learning-and-enso-time-series/#Item_37<br /><br /><br />@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-85085815643577039652014-10-25T02:40:12.419+11:002014-10-25T02:40:12.419+11:00I have a model called CSALT that uses a multiple r...I have a model called CSALT that uses a multiple regression approach to model the pause, partially using the ENSO signal as a compensating factor. It works perfectly well.<br /><br />I am not impressed with Troy Masters and most of those that are working the problem. They don't seem to understand the fat-tailed diffusion mechanisms of heat (and CO2 for that matter) AT ALL. Not even worth trying to follow what he is doing as it will lead one down a deep rabbit hole.<br /><br />@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-71242689329254244612014-10-25T02:30:45.089+11:002014-10-25T02:30:45.089+11:00Sounds good. I am thinking that, even though the r...Sounds good. I am thinking that, even though the results are striking, that this is still a work in progress and so it should be modified if needed. The quality of the fit is still dependent on how well I can capture the behavior of QBO and TSI and then adjusting the scale factors and any phase relationships that exist.<br /> <br />@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-37920130214357043302014-10-24T23:27:36.504+11:002014-10-24T23:27:36.504+11:00Nick, you might want to look at troyca's posts...Nick, you might want to look at troyca's posts on the inability of this approach to validate.<br /><br />Here's the link to part 3. The others are included in this post:<br /><br />http://troyca.wordpress.com/2013/02/23/could-the-multiple-regression-approach-detect-a-recent-pause-in-global-warming-part-3/Carrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03476050886656768837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-83424594789134099292014-10-24T05:44:31.696+11:002014-10-24T05:44:31.696+11:00Web,
If you have monthly predictions, I could add ...Web,<br />If you have monthly predictions, I could add them to the plot. I'll probably re-do this check from time to time.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-10770746346300771912014-10-23T23:56:19.787+11:002014-10-23T23:56:19.787+11:00Learn from ENSO by looking at the past. Not even c...Learn from ENSO by looking at the past. Not even considering synchronization of El Nino conditions with the beginning of the year, there is a significant causal correlation connecting QBO, TSI, and likely the Chandler wobble to ENSO<br />http://imageshack.com/a/img631/2318/oW6Puj.gif<br /><br />The equatorial Pacific waters clearly have a natural resonance of about a 4.25 year period which is pumped by the wind shear forces of the descending QBO, aided by the periodic thermal charging/discharging due to TSI anomalies, and assisted by the inertial changes associated with the Chandler wobble.<br /><br />The rest is the seasonal push provided the annual solar variation. <br /><br />Very little of this is random or chaotic, contrary to what the deniers at Climate Etc and WUWT will continue to assert.<br />@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.com