Monday, October 6, 2014

Rising Trends

About a month ago, I wrote a post about how trends of global temperature calculated over recent past periods had been rising, and the periods of zero or negative trend, commonly quoted as evidence of the "pause", were likely to diminish rapidly if warm weather continued.

The weather has been warm, and with another month of data, that process has continued. I'll show the active plot below, in which you can see how the trends calculated over various periods back from now have changed since March, and are likely to change in the next three months if current warmth continues.

There has been a change to HadCRUT data since the last report. A new version of HadSST3 caused subsequent changes in HadCRUT4. I believe that are also fewer empty cells in HadCRUT4, which will help remove the cooling bias that Cowtan and Way identified. The changes to both HadSST3 and HadCRUT4 are noticeable.

In the active plot below, you can use the arrows to cycle through the months from March to November. Future data is padded by reflection - September is the same as August, October as July etc. In fact we have data for MSU and UAH in September. MSU was about the same, UAH a bit higher. I stuck with the padding for this post.

As before, what is plotted is, for each date, the trend of temperature from that date to August 2014. Of interest for pause talk is where the curves cross the x axis.



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