GISS is up from 0.79°C in June to 0.84°C in July. This compares with a small
fall of 0.02° in TempLS, and is very close to the
posted, 0.045°C rise in the NCEP/NCAR index. It is also the warmest July in the record (next was 0.74°C in 2011). The increase matches the 0.05°C rise in the UAH V6 lower troposphere, while RSS was unchanged.
I'll show the map comparisons below the fold. The updated comparison plots with 1998 are
here. Since all months so far in 2016 have been individual records, many by a large margin, a record 2016 is looking very likely.
Here is the GISS map for the month
The
Moyhu spherical harmonics map is here:
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2016 is certainly likely to be a record in GISS. Looking at the 12 month running mean, it has blown past any previous record. But even the satellite datasets look like 12 month running mean records, with RSS just exceeding its 1998 peak and UAH actually pretty far over (which I haven't seen any mention of elsewhere?) (I recognize that woodfortrees is using older satellite datasets, so I should check if the new satellites match)
ReplyDeletehttp://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/mean:12/plot/uah/mean:12/plot/gistemp/from:1979/mean:12
-MMM
UAH v6 beta enhances 1998 and dampens recent temperatures relative to V5.6. It is not so clear that 2016 will be a record in V6.x though it is a clear winner in v5.6
ReplyDeleteLooks like the 13th month average for v6 is pretty close to a tie... http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_July_2016_v6.jpg
ReplyDelete-MMM
On to August. Almost halfway, and it's above July... and teasingly close to 1.0 ℃. The reluctant La Niña is still being coy. Is the 7-day forecast proving itself to be very accurate?
ReplyDeleteThe CSALT model trained to 2013, and with extended SOI to 2016 looks like this
ReplyDeletehttp://imageshack.com/a/img922/9662/e2AFlb.png
The general idea is that the monotonic trending of CO2 combined with the known cyclic factors are enough to project global temperature. So if we can understand the cyclic factors such as ENSO, the simple models will work very well.