The NCEP/NCAR index increased last month, from 0.369°C in JUn e to 0.414°C in July (anomaly base 1994-2013). Temperatures had been dropping rapidly after El Nino, but the drop in June was not so great, so this increase may signal the end of that. July 2016 is still well above July 2015, and indeed well above mid-2015 levels.
There weren't major hot/cold features in July. A warm area in N Russia; Antarctica had a mix of hot/cold (maybe more cold). The Pacific has a cool ENSO plume region, but warm on each side.
In other news, UAH V6 rose similarly, from 0.34°C to 0.39°C. Arctic Sea Ice has been melting consistently, but not spectacularly. It is about to pass 2011, but 2007 and 2012 may be more elusive
I'll be travelling for a few days, and probably won't post on the TempLS results. However, I hope the automated reports will continue, and TempLS appears here. I should be back in time for GISS.
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The Pacific has a cool ENSO plume region, but warm on each side.
ReplyDeleteI call this the skinny La Niña. Her skinniness is unprecedented... the Twiggy La Niña.
The only way to describe ENSO is by characterizing the standing wave properties over time. Yet, the state of science in El Nino understanding is equivalent to someone standing on a pier and declaring "The tide is in!" or "The tide is out!" at any given moment. Yes, our knowledge is that bad.
DeleteIf this model is halfway right, it will go a long way to shoring up our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of ENSO.
http://contextEarth.com/2016/06/10/pukites-model-of-enso/
And its just not me, but there is a groundswell of research that is beginning to find the deterministic underpinnings of the phenomena. I just Google Scholar searched and here is one that says predictability goes out to 4 years. Woo hoo!
Gonzalez, Paula LM, and Lisa Goddard. 2016. “Long-Lead ENSO Predictability from CMIP5 Decadal Hindcasts.” Climate Dynamics 46 (9–10): 3127–47.
Nick, it appears you have some typos in your first paragraph. I'm guessing that "The NCEP/NCAR indexdropped again in June, from 0.369°C in May to 0.414°C in May..." should read more like "The NCEP/NCAR index rose slightly in July, from 0.369°C in June to 0.414°C in July...".
ReplyDeleteThe preliminary UM CCI and final WxBELL global temperature anomaly estimates also were up a bit in July from June as you might expect. I calculated 0.401°C from the UM CCI preliminary daily estimates for July and WxBELL has posted 0.379°C, both referenced to 1981-2010. I expect there will be a small change when UM CCI posts the final daily estimates for July.
I noticed there was a very high spike in the Antarctic temperature anomaly in July that may have been largely responsible for the global CFSR uptick from June to July. The Antarctic anomaly was also quite low in June and probably helped to lower the June global anomaly as well. You can see these up and down Antarctic spikes in the second graph posted here, as compared to the third graph:
https://oz4caster.wordpress.com/cfsr/
Thanks, Bryan,
DeleteI usually write these posts starting with editing last months first para - this time I updated the numbers but forgot to change the months. Fixed now, I hope.
In my map of July month average, it shows big variations in Antarctica, but some warm, some cold. Because it's at the ends of the color range, it's a bit hard to track relative hot/cold values. But there is a large cold area.
Hi Nick, the typo is still showing. Did you press save? :)
ReplyDeleteDavid,
DeleteIt looks OK to me - could it be a cache issue?
I hadn't loaded the page previously, so it wouldn't be a cache issue for me. Here's what I see:
Delete"The NCEP/NCAR indexdropped again in July, from 0.369°C in JUn e to 0.414°C in July"
Ned
Yes, thanks, I missed that "dropped again" should be "increased"
DeleteThanks, Nick. Looks fine now.
DeleteEra-interim for July is up 0.10 C from June, and warmest July on record, according to the Copernicus report:
ReplyDeletehttp://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/july-2016
Thanks Olof for this link new to me.
DeleteI hope either you or Nick stored the UAH6.0beta5 data valid at the beginning of this year!
Because the download of the July data was a big surprise.
Until now I simply add the increment line each month, but this time I downloaded the entire data into a new table and compared the two:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/08/uah-global-temperature-update-for-july-2016-0-39-deg-c/#comment-219453
Is it due to the fact that I still had an older revision, e.g. beta4?
Anyway I stop commenting there, the level is even worse than at WUWT.
I notice that the NCEP/NCAR data page at https://moyhu.blogspot.ca/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR is not updating. I keep a similar index at home for personal interest, as well as for a monthly article at wattsupwiththat.com I hope Nick doesn't mind me posting updates until he gets back from his trip, and fixes the problem on his site. My daily and monthly results have been very close to Nick's output. Here's August 1st to 7th (NCEP/NCAR runs a couple of days behind real time).
ReplyDelete20160801 0.437
20160802 0.360
20160803 0.259
20160804 0.217
20160805 0.321
20160806 0.353
20160807 0.365
Running mean for 2016/08 so far 0.330
Walter Dnes
A big jump on the 8th. Here's August 1st to 8th (NCEP/NCAR runs a couple of days behind real time).
ReplyDelete20160801 0.437
20160802 0.360
20160803 0.259
20160804 0.217
20160805 0.321
20160806 0.353
20160807 0.365
20160808 0.476
Running mean for 2016/08 so far 0.349
Walter Dnes
Thanks, Walter, that is very helpful. I should be able to fix my program on 14th.
DeleteNick
Here's August 1st to 9th.
ReplyDelete20160801 0.437
20160802 0.360
20160803 0.259
20160804 0.217
20160805 0.321
20160806 0.353
20160807 0.365
20160808 0.476
20160809 0.481
Running mean for 2016/08 so far 0.363
Walter Dnes
Here's August 1st to 10th.
ReplyDelete20160801 0.437
20160802 0.360
20160803 0.259
20160804 0.217
20160805 0.321
20160806 0.353
20160807 0.365
20160808 0.476
20160809 0.481
20160810 0.513
Running mean for 2016/08 so far 0.378
Walter Dnes
Here's August 1st to 11th.
ReplyDelete20160801 0.437
20160802 0.360
20160803 0.259
20160804 0.217
20160805 0.321
20160806 0.353
20160807 0.365
20160808 0.476
20160809 0.481
20160810 0.513
20160811 0.498
Running mean for 2016/08 so far 0.389
Walter Dnes
Walter - I usually come here and check for that number every other day or so, so thanks a bunch for posting your updates.
ReplyDeleteHere's August 1st to 12th.
ReplyDelete20160801 0.437
20160802 0.360
20160803 0.259
20160804 0.217
20160805 0.321
20160806 0.353
20160807 0.365
20160808 0.476
20160809 0.481
20160810 0.513
20160811 0.498
20160812 0.560
Running mean for 2016/08 so far 0.403
Thanks to Nick and JCH for their comments of appreciation. With Nick's return, his data should start updating again today or tomorrow. So this will hopefully be my final update for August.
Walter Dnes