Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Arctic Sea Ice - JAXA is back, with more melting

JAXA is an index of Sea Ice extent which is preferred by many, because the observing platform has good resolution and has recently been mostly more reliable than, say, NSIDC. It's the one I present first here. But for about a week it was not reporting, and this was at a late stage of melt and during an Artic cyclone.

When it suspended, melting had been sluggish, and 2016 was falling behind 2012, 2007 and 2015. However, during the break melting was higher, and 2016 is now in clear second place, behind 2012. It won't catch 2012, and will struggle to stay with 2007, where melting lasted well into September. However, it is ahead, and is quite likely to stay ahead of 2015, finishing at least third in recent years. Neven's (and forum) is the place to stay in touch.



Posted by Nick Stokes at 2:39 PM

9 comments:

  1. Olof RSeptember 1, 2016 at 4:46 PM

    I checked Jaxa tabular data for detail..
    By Aug 31 the sea ice extent of 2016 became the third lowest on record, with possibly two weeks left of the melting season. If additionally 180 000 km2 melt, 2016 will pass 2007 and become the second lowest.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nick StokesSeptember 1, 2016 at 5:42 PM

      Thanks, Olof
      Yes, two big melting days just passed - 161,000 km2 in total. It won't take long to get ahead of 2007 min at that rate. But we'll see.

      Delete
    2. Olof RSeptember 2, 2016 at 4:59 AM

      2016 has passed 2007 here:

      http://osisaf.met.no/p/new_ice_extent_graphs.php

      and is definitly aiming for the top position..

      Delete
    3. BindidonSeptember 2, 2016 at 7:55 AM

      Thanks Olof for the link, this is even a much better source than is dmi.dk.

      Should the record exactly follow the operational product, then 2012 might well leave its top position.

      Delete
    4. Nick StokesSeptember 2, 2016 at 8:27 AM

      " even a much better"
      Maybe, but I think the big drop going from record to operational product is a worry.

      Delete
    5. Olof RSeptember 4, 2016 at 5:20 PM

      There has been a big correction in i the Osisaf operational product (link above). By today, 2016 is now only a tie with 2007, and has thus not yet passed the later minimum of 2007.

      Delete
  2. Nick StokesSeptember 3, 2016 at 3:27 PM

    Arctic Sea Ice
    Still melting fast. JAXA today was 4090 '000 sq km, vs 4066 for 2007, 4257 for 2015 and 3177 for 2012. So 2016 looks almost certain to come in second, behind 2012, but well ahead of 2007.

    NSIDC Arctic was 4278, vs 4147 for 2007, 4341 for 2015 and 3340 for 2012. Still quite likely to pass 2007, since recent days have often been >100.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Olof RSeptember 4, 2016 at 4:12 PM

    Jaxa today (4054) is lower than the 2007 sea ice extent minimum..

    ReplyDelete
  4. BindidonSeptember 5, 2016 at 3:18 AM

    Within MoB's guest post "Feet of clay..." I read this comment:
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/03/feet-of-clay-the-official-errors-that-exaggerated-global-warming-part-2/#comment-2292596

    Commenter MieScatter seemed to give an accurate answer.

    What is Nick's and Olof R's meaning about all the last Arctic sea ice losses merely due to storms?

    ReplyDelete

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