tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post4121753715969989044..comments2024-03-28T13:56:47.604+11:00Comments on moyhu: NCEP/NCAR up 0.045°C in JulyNick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-69233108006123420182016-08-15T00:55:07.927+10:002016-08-15T00:55:07.927+10:00Here's August 1st to 12th.
20160801 0.437
201...Here's August 1st to 12th.<br /><br />20160801 0.437<br />20160802 0.360<br />20160803 0.259<br />20160804 0.217<br />20160805 0.321<br />20160806 0.353<br />20160807 0.365<br />20160808 0.476<br />20160809 0.481<br />20160810 0.513<br />20160811 0.498<br />20160812 0.560<br /><br />Running mean for 2016/08 so far 0.403<br /><br />Thanks to Nick and JCH for their comments of appreciation. With Nick's return, his data should start updating again today or tomorrow. So this will hopefully be my final update for August.<br /><br />Walter DnesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-91128713798888233492016-08-14T10:41:32.381+10:002016-08-14T10:41:32.381+10:00Walter - I usually come here and check for that nu...Walter - I usually come here and check for that number every other day or so, so thanks a bunch for posting your updates.JCHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-73797294719251144772016-08-14T02:47:45.274+10:002016-08-14T02:47:45.274+10:00Here's August 1st to 11th.
20160801 0.437
201...Here's August 1st to 11th.<br /><br />20160801 0.437<br />20160802 0.360<br />20160803 0.259<br />20160804 0.217<br />20160805 0.321<br />20160806 0.353<br />20160807 0.365<br />20160808 0.476<br />20160809 0.481<br />20160810 0.513<br />20160811 0.498<br /><br />Running mean for 2016/08 so far 0.389<br /><br />Walter DnesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-66716115964020609142016-08-13T02:38:10.758+10:002016-08-13T02:38:10.758+10:00Here's August 1st to 10th.
20160801 0.437
201...Here's August 1st to 10th.<br /><br />20160801 0.437<br />20160802 0.360<br />20160803 0.259<br />20160804 0.217<br />20160805 0.321<br />20160806 0.353<br />20160807 0.365<br />20160808 0.476<br />20160809 0.481<br />20160810 0.513<br /><br />Running mean for 2016/08 so far 0.378<br /><br />Walter DnesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-62877498032857424022016-08-12T00:33:10.359+10:002016-08-12T00:33:10.359+10:00Here's August 1st to 9th.
20160801 0.437
2016...Here's August 1st to 9th.<br /><br />20160801 0.437<br />20160802 0.360<br />20160803 0.259<br />20160804 0.217<br />20160805 0.321<br />20160806 0.353<br />20160807 0.365<br />20160808 0.476<br />20160809 0.481<br /><br />Running mean for 2016/08 so far 0.363<br /><br />Walter DnesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-72945691816239111222016-08-11T02:23:15.377+10:002016-08-11T02:23:15.377+10:00Thanks, Walter, that is very helpful. I should be ...Thanks, Walter, that is very helpful. I should be able to fix my program on 14th.<br />NickNick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-8500254280767956772016-08-11T01:28:08.569+10:002016-08-11T01:28:08.569+10:00A big jump on the 8th. Here's August 1st to 8...A big jump on the 8th. Here's August 1st to 8th (NCEP/NCAR runs a couple of days behind real time).<br /><br />20160801 0.437<br />20160802 0.360<br />20160803 0.259<br />20160804 0.217<br />20160805 0.321<br />20160806 0.353<br />20160807 0.365<br />20160808 0.476<br /><br />Running mean for 2016/08 so far 0.349<br /><br />Walter DnesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-85665898778533687712016-08-10T04:25:42.336+10:002016-08-10T04:25:42.336+10:00I notice that the NCEP/NCAR data page at https://m...I notice that the NCEP/NCAR data page at https://moyhu.blogspot.ca/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR is not updating. I keep a similar index at home for personal interest, as well as for a monthly article at wattsupwiththat.com I hope Nick doesn't mind me posting updates until he gets back from his trip, and fixes the problem on his site. My daily and monthly results have been very close to Nick's output. Here's August 1st to 7th (NCEP/NCAR runs a couple of days behind real time).<br /><br />20160801 0.437<br />20160802 0.360<br />20160803 0.259<br />20160804 0.217<br />20160805 0.321<br />20160806 0.353<br />20160807 0.365<br /><br />Running mean for 2016/08 so far 0.330<br /><br />Walter Dnes<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-67441673966119826732016-08-07T09:42:38.940+10:002016-08-07T09:42:38.940+10:00Thanks Olof for this link new to me.
I hope eithe...Thanks Olof for this link new to me.<br /><br />I hope either you or Nick stored the UAH6.0beta5 data valid at the beginning of this year! <br /><br />Because the download of the July data was a big surprise.<br /><br />Until now I simply add the increment line each month, but this time I downloaded the entire data into a new table and compared the two:<br /><br />http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/08/uah-global-temperature-update-for-july-2016-0-39-deg-c/#comment-219453<br /><br />Is it due to the fact that I still had an older revision, e.g. beta4?<br />Anyway I stop commenting there, the level is even worse than at WUWT.<br /><br />Bindidonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-52745102408381010802016-08-06T21:18:35.847+10:002016-08-06T21:18:35.847+10:00Era-interim for July is up 0.10 C from June, and w...Era-interim for July is up 0.10 C from June, and warmest July on record, according to the Copernicus report:<br />http://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/july-2016Olof Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18244733455655978307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-10029520562155223362016-08-04T22:44:03.374+10:002016-08-04T22:44:03.374+10:00Thanks, Nick. Looks fine now.Thanks, Nick. Looks fine now.Ned Wnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-17671986836260941972016-08-04T06:35:44.019+10:002016-08-04T06:35:44.019+10:00Yes, thanks, I missed that "dropped again&quo...Yes, thanks, I missed that "dropped again" should be "increased"Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-39127147960980164762016-08-03T22:09:05.211+10:002016-08-03T22:09:05.211+10:00I hadn't loaded the page previously, so it wou...I hadn't loaded the page previously, so it wouldn't be a cache issue for me. Here's what I see:<br /><br />"The NCEP/NCAR indexdropped again in July, from 0.369°C in JUn e to 0.414°C in July"<br /><br />NedNed Wnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-9427181813732114602016-08-03T16:52:51.106+10:002016-08-03T16:52:51.106+10:00The only way to describe ENSO is by characterizing...The only way to describe ENSO is by characterizing the standing wave properties over time. Yet, the state of science in El Nino understanding is equivalent to someone standing on a pier and declaring "The tide is in!" or "The tide is out!" at any given moment. Yes, our knowledge is that bad.<br /><br />If this model is halfway right, it will go a long way to shoring up our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of ENSO.<br /><a href="http://contextearth.com/2016/06/10/pukites-model-of-enso/" rel="nofollow">http://contextEarth.com/2016/06/10/pukites-model-of-enso/</a><br /><br />And its just not me, but there is a groundswell of research that is beginning to find the deterministic underpinnings of the phenomena. I just Google Scholar searched and here is one that says predictability goes out to 4 years. Woo hoo!<br /><br />Gonzalez, Paula LM, and Lisa Goddard. 2016. <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2757-0" rel="nofollow">“Long-Lead ENSO Predictability from CMIP5 Decadal Hindcasts.”</a> Climate Dynamics 46 (9–10): 3127–47.<br /><br /><br />@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-27169380011302261842016-08-03T14:33:09.773+10:002016-08-03T14:33:09.773+10:00David,
It looks OK to me - could it be a cache iss...David,<br />It looks OK to me - could it be a cache issue? Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-5502975715343097362016-08-03T11:05:36.244+10:002016-08-03T11:05:36.244+10:00Hi Nick, the typo is still showing. Did you press ...Hi Nick, the typo is still showing. Did you press save? :)David Hodgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-18980154806196732042016-08-03T08:55:52.952+10:002016-08-03T08:55:52.952+10:00Thanks, Bryan,
I usually write these posts startin...Thanks, Bryan,<br />I usually write these posts starting with editing last months first para - this time I updated the numbers but forgot to change the months. Fixed now, I hope.<br /><br />In my <a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#webgl" rel="nofollow">map</a> of July month average, it shows big variations in Antarctica, but some warm, some cold. Because it's at the ends of the color range, it's a bit hard to track relative hot/cold values. But there is a large cold area.<br />Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-41789577712495385222016-08-03T08:44:07.312+10:002016-08-03T08:44:07.312+10:00Nick, it appears you have some typos in your first...Nick, it appears you have some typos in your first paragraph. I'm guessing that "The NCEP/NCAR indexdropped again in June, from 0.369°C in May to 0.414°C in May..." should read more like "The NCEP/NCAR index rose slightly in July, from 0.369°C in June to 0.414°C in July...".<br /><br />The preliminary UM CCI and final WxBELL global temperature anomaly estimates also were up a bit in July from June as you might expect. I calculated 0.401°C from the UM CCI preliminary daily estimates for July and WxBELL has posted 0.379°C, both referenced to 1981-2010. I expect there will be a small change when UM CCI posts the final daily estimates for July.<br /><br />I noticed there was a very high spike in the Antarctic temperature anomaly in July that may have been largely responsible for the global CFSR uptick from June to July. The Antarctic anomaly was also quite low in June and probably helped to lower the June global anomaly as well. You can see these up and down Antarctic spikes in the second graph posted here, as compared to the third graph:<br />https://oz4caster.wordpress.com/cfsr/Bryan - oz4casterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18027990322659101002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-88337118173605933652016-08-03T07:02:39.032+10:002016-08-03T07:02:39.032+10:00The Pacific has a cool ENSO plume region, but warm...<i>The Pacific has a cool ENSO plume region, but warm on each side. </i><br /><br />I call this the skinny La Niña. Her skinniness is unprecedented... the Twiggy La Niña.JCHnoreply@blogger.com