Monday, November 10, 2014

Update on GHCN and TempLS early reporting

About a month ago, I posted on a proposed new scheme for reporting monthly averages with a mesh version of TempLS. The idea was to report continuously as data (land source GCHN) came in. I wondered how reliable the very early estimates might be. I was quite optimistic.

So, wouldn't you know, November is the first month in my experience when GHCN didn't keep to their regular schedule. Normally there are daily updates from month start, with the largest in the first day or two. But this month, nothing at all until the 8th. Sure enough, my program faithfully produced an average (0.589°C) based on SST alone; it's been told now not to do that again.

Anyway, the data has arrived, and is up on the latest data page. October (with GHCN) was 0.664°C; almost exactly the same as September, which was pretty warm. For once, there was little cold in N America, and W Europe was warm. The main cold spot was Russia/Kazakhstan.

13 comments:

  1. SOI continues to be negative. Equatorial Pacific warming (latest ONI +0.2) Warmest year looking a little more possible. J-NG rules.

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  2. Nick - GISS is in at .76C.

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    1. Thanks - also just below September (0.77°C).

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  3. Nick, I think they lowered September to .76C. Looks to me like the 10-month average is above 2010's 12-month average. That's the change.

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  4. With almost half of November behind us, any chance your approach can tell how hot it has been in comparison to, say, Same period in 2013? Just eyeballing daily maps from NOAA (ftp://public.sos.noaa.gov/rt/sst/nesdis/sst_anom/2048/), I get the feeling that November 2014 is a lot warmer than 2013. Which is a little crazy because combined sea+land for Nov.2013 was +0.78C. Are we really heading to the warmest November ever?

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    1. DK,
      My approach is dependent on the GHCN monthly averages, which don't come out till end month (or even later, this month). Tokyo climate center gives weekly anomaly maps, but I don't think they give numbers.

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    2. A lot of people are going to think the current cold wave in the United States will derail the warmest year, but it's looking like a compensating El Nino lite could be taking hold.

      DK, that's a nice link. Nick's is too.

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    3. I've been looking at NCEP/NCAR reanalysis lately. I'm planning to post on a NCEP-based global average. So far, November is running about 0.1°C below October. More like August.

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    4. Thanks, Nick! Looking forward to it.

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    5. DK,
      The new post is up. Temperatures have dived recently - I think it's the N America cold snap.

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  5. That would keep it alive. On GISS, the .43C in February is the problem. The pause caught a break with that one. I don't think it's in the bag. By what percentage does it have to be to avoid a tie?

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    1. JCH,
      I think 0.63°C is the 2010 average. GISS is currently ahead to date, so if it continues to clear that, it will be a record. I put November so far at about 0.68°C.

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  6. Their data page has .66C for J-D? 2014 is ahead of that, too, but not be a lot.

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