Saturday, November 22, 2014

Update on 2014 warmth.

A month ago I posted plots to see whether some global indoces might show record warmth in 2014. The troposphere indices UAH and RSS are not in record territory. But others are. NOAA has just come out with an increased value for October, so a record there is very likely. The indices here all improved their prospects in October. HADCRUT is still to come.

In the previous post, I noted that the reanalysis data for November showed a considerable dip mid-month, corresponding to the North America freeze. November will probably be cooler than October - my guess is more like August.

Plots are below, showing the cumulative of the difference between month ave and 2010 annual average, divided by 12 (so final will be the difference in annual averages).  NOAA and HADCRUT look very likely to reach a record, and also the TempLS indices. Cumulatively GISS is currently just above the 2010 average, but warm months are keeping the slope positive.

Update - just something I noticed. About 3 months ago I commented how closely NOAA and TempLS were tracking. TempLS has since produced a new version, mesh-based, which tracks GISS quite closely. But the relation between old TempLS, now called TempLS grid, and NOAA is still remarkably close. Last month, both rose by 0.042°C. The previous month, small rises - TLS by 0.012 and NOAA by 0.014.

This time I'll just give the active plot with the 2010 average subtracted. There is an explanatory plot in the earlier post. The index will be a record if it ends the year above the axis. Months warmer than the 2010 average make the line head upwards.

Use the buttons to click through.

1 comment:

  1. GISS is not much different in historical terms than NOAA because they have a common SST component, which accounts for ~70% of the signal.