Sunday, November 30, 2014

Cooler November?

The main purpose of this post is to note that the daily NCEP data is now regularly updated here. As with TempLS mesh, there is a kind of Moyhu effect whereby when I set up a system like this and want to tell everyone about it, there is a hiatus in the data source. This time I think it is just Thanksgiving.

Anyway, the global story it tells is that there was a cool dip around Nov 13, at the height of the N America freeze, and a second a few days later. Currently (to Nov 24) the average anomaly for Nov is 0.157°C, compared with 0.281°C in October. I think this will pan out to November being about 0.1°C cooler than October in the surface temperature indices.

What does this mean for talk of a surface record 2014? I think it is neutral. To reach a record, month temperatures have to exceed on average the 2010 average, and it looks like November will be close to that number. For example, GISS Oct was 0.76; 2010 average 0.66. This may matter for GISS, which was only just above the average anyway to date. NOAA and HADCRUT have a greater margin.

Update: Three more days data arrived, and still cool. The month average is now down to 0.135°C, a drop of about 0.15 from October. That is negative for GISS record prospects.


2 comments:

  1. That would leave GISS an eyelash over 2010. My hunch is December is going to be way above average.

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  2. Spencer is in:

    The Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for November, 2014 is +0.33 deg. C, down a little from the October value of +0.37 deg. C (click for full size version):

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