Tuesday, December 19, 2017

GISS November global down 0.03°C from October, now 0.87°C.

GISS cooled slightly, going from 0.90°C in October to 0.87°C in November (GISS report here). That is very similar to the decrease (now 0.064°C with ERSST V5) in TempLS mesh. It was the third warmest November on record, after 2015 and 2016. It makes it almost certain that 2017 will be the second warmest in the record (after 2016): December would have to average 0.51°C for 2015 to catch up, and December has been warmer than November so far.

The overall pattern was similar to that in TempLS. Cool in Canada and far East Siberia. Warm in W Siberia, and very warm in the Arctic. A cool La Nina plume.

As usual here, I will compare the GISS and previous TempLS plots below the jump.

Here is GISS

And here is the TempLS spherical harmonics plot

This post is part of a series that has now run for six years. The TempLS mesh data is reported here, and the recent history of monthly readings is here. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period here which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS here.

The reporting cycle starts with a report of the daily reanalysis index on about the 4th of the month. The next post is this, the TempLS report, usually about the 8th. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses a spherical harmonics to the TempLS mesh residuals; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a better resolved WebGL plot here.

1 comment: