Most of the GHCN V3 data is now in, and ERSST v4, and TempLS mesh (the new V3) shows a rise from 0.618 to 0.665°C, relative to a 1961-90 base period. TempLS grid rose from 0.674 to 0.711 °C. Usually the mesh weighted version is more likely to agree with GISS and the grid version with NOAA, though this time they both are similar.
The rise is somewhat at variance with the NCEP/NCAR index, which suggested a fairly cool month, although that is muddied somewhat by the May oddity when that index suggested more warming than TempLS mesh and GISS showed. Anyway the TempLS calc is certainly warm, and for TempLS grid, seems to be almost a record, falling just short of the 0.718°C for Feb 1998.
The warm places were western US and central Russia, with cold in Antarctica and the E Mediterranean, pretty much as indicated in the NCEP/NCAR report. As I mentioned in my previous post, you can get more detail in the regular WebGL map here, which shows the actual station anomalies with shading between.
There was a curious delay with the Canada data which slightly set back this report. The initial posted data was a duplicate (mostly) of May, and flagged as such, so TempLS rejected it. That seems to have been corrected, and now 4266 stations (incl SST cells) have reported, which is almost all that we can expect.
In other news, Arctic ice has held up well in the last month, but the last two days of JAXA show rising melt, and Neven says more heat is on the way.
It just ain’t natural
2 hours ago
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Nick,
ReplyDeleteThere is still time to join in on the fun at http://forum.azimuthproject.org/discussion/comment/14739/#Comment_14739.
This is a plot of the LHS vs the RHS of the SOI sloshing differential wave equation
SOI''(t) + k SOI(t) = F(t)
where F(t) is the forcing function, mainly comprised of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with a regular 2.33 year period, along with known periodic angular momentum changes such as the Chandler wobble.
http://imageshack.com/a/img909/2333/xu3iZb.gif
The LHS is essentially data driven, while the RHS is the proposed forcing model. If the two sides match, you have a solution to ENSO that can extend forward in time.
This is essentially an exact model of the ENSO / El Nino cycles, which is a significant portion of the natural climate variability.
JMA just reported the warmest June ever, beating last years record by 0.08. It is actually the second hottest monthly anomaly ever, only 0.02 from el Nino February 1998.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like the gridded data sets are running really hot in June, probably favoured by the poor coverage in cool Antarctica..
Yes, TempLS grid June has drifted up with new data, and has edged out Feb 98 to be the hottest month of any kind in the record. TempLS mesh June is cooler than March, but is the hottest June in the record.
DeletePDO index went up in June. July SAT is cold. To me, something is weird.
ReplyDelete.76C
ReplyDeleteThanks. GISS had reported 0.71 °C for May, so that is a rise of 0.05 - same rise as TempLS mesh. However, I see they have now raised their May estimate to 0.73°C.
DeleteThey are now using ERSST v4 which seemingly has increased recent trends and values..
Deletehttp://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/updates_v3/ersst4vs3b/