He's made some pretty outrageous claims about how people here are, well I'll quote: "Some ClimateBallers, including commenters at Stokes’ blog, are now making the fabricated claim that MM05 results were not based on the 10,000 simulations reported in Figure 2, but on a cherry-picked subset of the top percentile. "
I wrote a substantive response to this, soon after the post appeared. It went into moderation - I've posted the text here. About four hours later it disappeared from the queue; I don't know what is happening there. Steve says he'll look in the morning. (It's here).
I reran the code to get some quantitative HSI numbers for the various cases, matching those described in detail here, and pictured here. It's a new run, not exactly matching. Here are the numbers, matching the cases described . For unselected sets, it's the mean absolute value HSI:
|Decentered PCA (MBH98)||Centered PCA|
|Selected 100 out of 10000 by HSI||1.98||1.60|
The mean of 1.61 for unselected decentered (MBH) matches the mid-range figure in Steve's post. The difference between 1.98 and 1.61 made by selection may not seem so great, but these are like t-values. And it shows when centered but selected has almost the same mean HSI. The undisclosed selection is about as effective in creating HS appearance as decentering.
Emphasising the compression of the t-like HSI scale, centered unselected, which shouldn't have any HSI effect, and don't seem to, still show a mean (absolute) HSI of 0.65.
Anyway, below the jump I'll show various plots relevant to Brandon's contention that they should be oriented.
Here is the original Wegman tableau:
It is the selected version, with a mean HSI of about 1.98. I contrasted it with an unselected version. Brandon modified this to show the plots with positive HSI:
|Unselected, as produced by MM05 program||As reoriented by Brandon|
He says that it makes a big difference. Judge for yourself. But is it a legitimate difference? It makes any kind of trend look like a HS contribution, by turning it up.
Here's another comparison - Brandon's reoriented MBH unselected versus centered but selected.
|Centered PCA, but with 100/10000 selection as in M&M05||Decentered, unselected as reoriented by Brandon|
As you'd expect from the above table, even with reorientation, they look similar. But the left has no decentering. The HS is created just by selecting the 100 top HSI out of 10000.