There's a post at Climate Audit on Kevin O'Neill's comments exposing aspects of the Wegman report. I would like to respond there, but am currently not able to. All my comments go to spam, and at CA, they don't re-emerge.
I'll say a little about this situation. It affects my interaction with all Wordpress blogs. Last month I was temporarily banned at WUWT, in circumstances I describe here. The mechanism is that I was designated a spammer, and my comments went to spam. After a week or so, I tried commenting again, but same result. This apparently was picked up by Akismet, and my comments at CA started going into moderation, then into spam. Same at other Wordpress blogs.
I can comment using my Twitter ID, but CA does not allow that. WUWT nominally does, but my comment was removed because Twitter substitutes my Twitter address for the email address. So I'm out there too.
Anyway, back to CA. Back in 2010, DeepClimate noted some strange features of the Wegman report. There was much plagiarism, but also the statistics had some very odd features. One concerned the trumpeted claim that Mann's algorithm would create hockey sticks out of red noise input. Wegman showed a dozen profiles generated by red noise. He said in the caption to Fig 4,4:
"One of the most compelling illustrations that McIntyre and McKitrick have produced is created by feeding red noise [AR(1) with parameter = 0.2] into the MBH algorithm. The AR(1) process is a stationary process meaning that it should not exhibit any long-term trend. The MBH98 algorithm found ‘hockey stick’ trend in each of the independent replications."
As DC found, what they had actually done, using M&M's code, was to do 10000 runs with red noise input, select the top 100 by hockey stick index, and then select randomly from that 100. I described the consequences of this here. I showed, inter alia, that selecting that way gave hockey sticks whether you used Mann's off-centre PCA or centered PCA.
Brandon Shollenberger responded by trying to move the goalposts. The selection by HS index used by Wegman had the incidental effect of orienting the profiles. That's how DC noticed it; the profiles, even if Mann's algorithm did what Wegman claimed, should have given up and down shapes. Brandon demanded that I should, having removed the artificial selection, somehow tamper with the results to regenerate the uniformity of sign, even though many had no HS shape to base such a reorientation on. And so we see a pea-moving; it's now supposed to be all about how Wegman shifted the signs. It isn't; its all about how HS's were artificially selected. More recent stuff here.
So now Steve McIntyre at CA is taking the same line. Bloggers are complaining about sign selection: "While I’ve started with O’Neill’s allegation of deception and “real fraud” related to sign selection,...". No, sign selection is the telltale giveaway. The issue is hockey-stick selection. 100 out of 10000, by HS index.
Update. It seems that if I disown my WP id, and change my name slightly, I advance at CA from the spam bin to the moderation queue (probably as a first time commenter). That can be a long wait too, but we'll see.
Update. In comments, Rachel from "Engineering Happiness" made a helpful suggestion about contacting Akismet. I followed advice, and someone emailed me. Not solved yet, but we're working on it. Thanks, Rachel.
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