Thursday, October 18, 2018

GISS September global down 0.02°C from August.

The GISS land/ocean temperature anomaly fell 0.02°C last month. The September anomaly average was 0.75°C, down from August 0.77°C. It seems to be the sixth warmest September in the record, or, to put it another way, the coolest since 2012 (but warmer or as warm as any September before that). TempLS declined more;, by 0.075. Late data brought it down from my original report Jim Hansen's report is here.

The overall pattern was similar to that in TempLS. Warm in Europe, especially NW Russia and extending into Arabia and NE Africa. .Also warm in eastern US and Alaska, but cold in N Canada. . Cool spots in S Brazil and S Africa. Patchy but cool in Antarctica

As usual here, I will compare the GISS and previous TempLS plots below the jump.


Here is GISS


And here is the TempLS spherical harmonics plot



This post is part of a series that has now run for six years. The GISS data completes the month cycle, and is compared with the TempLS result and map. GISS lists its reports here, and I post the monthly averages here.
The TempLS mesh data is reported here, and the recent history of monthly readings is here. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period here which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS here.

The reporting cycle starts with a report of the daily reanalysis index on about the 4th of the month. The next post is this, the TempLS report, usually about the 8th. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses a spherical harmonics to the TempLS mesh residuals; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a better resolved WebGL plot here.

A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:
  1. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report
  2. TempLS report
  3. GISS report and comparison with TempLS



7 comments:

  1. Looks like October is about to heat up in a pretty significant way.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Nick Stokes, If I try to post the updates in the 'Prospects for 2018' I get the message:
    "Your comment will be visible after approval."
    My posts do not appear.
    I hope I can post here. If it works I try the updates here in this GISS thread.


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This are the updates from the 'Prospects for 2018':

      I update my prediction for GISS temperature anomaly using data up to Aug18.
      SON18 0.87+-0.12
      J-D18 0.82+-0.04
      DJF19 0.83+-0.18
      MAM19 0.91+-0.17
      JJA19 0.86+-0.15
      (SON19 0.98+-0.16)
      (J-D19 0.92+-0.13)
      For the last both values I assumed that the prediction for 2018 turns out exactly.
      Additional MEI prediction, experimental
      AugSep18 -0.01+-0.45
      SepOct18 -0.11+-0.59
      OctNov18 +0.02+-0.62
      NovDec18 +0.01+-0.63
      DecJan19 +0.06+-0.71
      JanFeb19 -0.01+-0.91
      After the rise last month, MEI may stay neutral.

      I update my prediction for GISS temperature anomaly using data up to Aug18.
      SON18 0.83+-0.08
      J-D18 0.81+-0.03
      DJF19 0.90+-0.17
      MAM19 0.90+-0.18
      JJA19 0.86+-0.15
      (SON19 0.98+-0.16)
      (J-D19 0.93+-0.13)
      For the last both values I assumed that the prediction for 2018 turns out exactly.
      Additional MEI prediction, experimental
      SepOct18 +0.47+-0.37
      OctNov18 +0.44+-0.54
      NovDec18 +0.42+-0.54
      DecJan19 +0.47+-0.65
      JanFeb19 +0.53+-0.80
      FebMar19 +0.52+-0.93
      After the large, unexpected rise last month, MEI is predicted to be positive.

      Delete
    2. Uli,
      I'm sorry that your comment went into moderation for some reason. I haven't set any moderation flags, except for a limit on some very old threads, so I don't know why that happened. Anyway, it should be visible now.

      Delete
  3. Nick, thanks. I try now to post the prediction based on September data there. May it work now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, does not work in Prospects for 2018. Still the message is: "Your comment will be visible after approval.", but no recaptcha.

      Delete
    2. Sorry, Uli, I don't know what happened there. I can see no messages awaiting.

      Delete