Thursday, February 16, 2017

GISS rose 0.13°C in January; now 0.92°C.

Gistemp rose from 0.79°C in December to 0.92°C in January. That is quite similar to TempLS mesh, where the rise has come back to 0.094°C. There were also similar rises in NCEP/NCAR and the satellite indices.

As with the other indices, this is very warm. It is almost the highest anomaly for any month before Oct 2015 (Jan 07 at 0.96°C was higher). And according to NCEP/NCAR, February so far is even warmer.


I'll show the regular GISS plot and TempLS comparison below the fold

Here is the GISS map for the month



Again, warm in most of N America, and Asia/Siberia. Cold in Mediterranean. The Moyhu spherical harmonics map is here:



Update: I was curious about the reason for the relatively large change in TempLS since my first posting. The station numbers had increased from 4017 to 4457, but above 4000 is usually fairly safe. It seems that late reporting in the cold Near/Mid east may be the reason. I wrote an update on that post here.




18 comments:

  1. But how much of the warmth is due to the powerful 2016 La Niña?

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    1. The El Niño peaked in the fall of 2015. Warming in the atmosphere peaked a year ago. Are we still seeing residual warmth?

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    2. Cliff,

      y, some of residual warming but also some cooling from the weak la nina, it seems to chancel each other out. But in my opinion its not so surprising, we have to consider that climate change is not just linear more step wise and El-Nino is a part of it and then when there is a positive imbalance. El-Nino is not just warming, it breaks down the tropical heat-uptake into the lower ocean.

      means, if the imbalance is great and heat uptake was strong before (the 00s) then the upper ocean become under el-nino a explosion of heat and since imbalance is positive, this heat stays in upper layer and since ocean and atmosphere are strong connected the global climate isnt able to cool down to the old levels.

      just look at temperatur in 0-100m: https://data.nodc.noaa.gov/woa/DATA_ANALYSIS/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/DATA/basin/yearly_mt/T-dC-w0-100m.dat

      Since there is a regime shift in PDO it isnt likly that we will see temperature lower then 2014

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    3. It's great that we have Nick from Australia, but then Oz also gives us the most insufferable "hydrologist" slash latrine engineer Rob Ellison claiming knowledge on El Nino. I wouldn't be surprised if the above anonymous is the water chef. "Regime shift" is the key codeword here.

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    4. No, he has a new kick. It's drought.

      I agree with anonymous. The PDO, a proxy for the Eastern Pacific, appears to have shifted to a warming regime.

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    5. @ Whut

      Whats wrong with you? Here in Germany we say: "Egal was du nimmst, nehm weniger davon oder gib mir was ab" what literally means, dont take so much drugs or give me the same, then i hopefully understand want you want do say

      @ JHC

      Y, its seem like that, at the moment, the weak la-nina gets replaced by neutral to weak el-nino conditions (Tradewinds are weak at the moment and OHC are also near normal) and i think, stronger positiv PDO will have comeback the nxt months. Anyway, i donsent see any point what would cause (exclusiv vulcanic erruptions, Impacts from Space) very much cooling in 2017, GISS by the end of the year with arround 0.8K seem likly but there is a good chance if El-Nino comes back, to get even warmer or end then near 2016

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    6. No need to get so worked up over my comment. You are anonymous so we have no idea who you are and we wouldn't be able to distinguish you from the next anonymous that shows up.

      Better yet, since you have an interest in insanely crazy thought processes, you might want to take a look at my most recent summary of how to characterize ENSO. Any understanding of regime shifts has to come after obtaining a clear understanding of what causes ENSO in the first place.

      https://forum.azimuthproject.org/discussion/comment/15731/#Comment_15731

      This is in the persistent QBO & ENSO thread over at the Azimuth Project forum.

      ENSO is a standing wave of a specific polarity. What can happen to that standing wave during a disturbance? It can easily flip 180 degrees in phase if you catch it right near a nodal swing. Could it be that's what happened around 1980 when we had our last "great Pacific climate shift" ?

      Also see H. Astudillo, R. Abarca-del-Rio, and F. Borotto, “Long-term non-linear predictability of ENSO events over the 20th century,” arXiv preprint arXiv:1506.04066 published in Climate Dynamics. They characterize the same glitch around 1980 that I see. ENSO is likely predictable save for these sporadic disturbances that screw up conventional analysis.









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    7. @ whut

      You dont get my comment, i am not talking about the cause of ENSO, i talking about interactions with internal climate itself. Your Link tells nothing about dynamic, it dosent tell me, how much upwelling is reduced, how warm will be the water below caused by a strong downwelling kelvinwave, i dosent tell me, who much is the tropical divergence reduced in the first place of El-Nina and how much the residual warming becomes when El Nino starts to end and tropical divergence gets stronger again. Same with clouds and and and...

      So, therefore what u talking is not the same what i do talk about.

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    8. Anonymous - look for Reply as: unknown (Goo

      Click on it and click on name/URL

      Give yourself a name of some sort so that we'll know you from the next anonymous.

      I'm waiting patiently for the JIASO PDO number for January. As you probably already know, the NOAA PDO index remained positive for January, so odds are pretty good JIASO will as well.

      Someday soon whut will be able to forecast ENSO. Until then all we can do this far from NH fall is guess. My money is on crossing El Niño threshold by October.

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    9. JHC,

      Thx a lot. Ya, but you havent to wait every month for the PDO Value, you see it also in the SST-Maps or you can interpret the atmosphere sign, PDO+ is associated with a stronger Aleuten-Low. SST and atmosphere imply that PDO+ will remain in february.


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    10. "You dont get my comment, i am not talking about the cause of ENSO, i talking about interactions with internal climate itself. Your Link tells nothing about dynamic, it dosent tell me, how much upwelling is reduced, how warm will be the water below caused by a strong downwelling kelvinwave, i dosent tell me, who much is the tropical divergence reduced in the first place of El-Nina and how much the residual warming becomes when El Nino starts to end and tropical divergence gets stronger again. Same with clouds and and and..."

      OK, if you want to go that route. Rather than that, I suggest instead to analyze the strong dipole of SOI and figure out the physics of the standing wave. I can do that for QBO so you should be able to do that for ENSO.

      This is a recent review article explaining how to best approach the characterization of the wave action
      Faraday waves: their dispersion relation,
      nature of bifurcation and wavenumber selection revisited


      "For instance, to the best of our knowledge, the dispersion relation (relating angular frequency ω and wavenumber k) of parametrically forced water waves has astonishingly not been explicitly established hitherto. "

      !!!

      This is from Journal of Fluid Mechanics in 2015. Where is David Young to explain why his Boeing team hasn't figured this out yet?

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    11. Christian and others - JIASO PDO for January is in at .77... 37 straight months of positive values. Niño 3.4 going up quickly, so I think we're about to get surprisingly warm.

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  2. We are not seeing anywhere near the same level of decrease that happened after the 1997/98 El Nino. It will be interesting to see how 2017 develops.

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    1. The coldest year after 1998 was 1999, which was 0.22C cooler.

      If the coldest year after 2016 is 0.22C colder than 2016, then we will never see another year as cold as 2014.

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  3. I notice that there has been quite large down-adjustments in GISS last Winter and recent Winter.
    The conservative GHCN algorithm have once again demonstrated its Arctic cooling bias ((or flutter) and has all of a sudden removed 14-15 months of data from the Frans Josef and Ostrov Vize stations. It is obviously suspicious with long-lasting anomalies of +10 C.
    This happened last Winter as well, when six months of these two russian stations plus Svalbard disappeared. These data returned later in the year, but now are the two russian stations gone again. Will Svalbard disappear soon again?
    All these stations have been constantly approved by WMO CLIMAT messages..

    I think it is time to introduce GHCNv4 now, to cure the cooling bias and indecisiveness. Lonely stations with extreme warming are not well handled right now..

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    1. 2017 is looking to be another warm year. Sea ice is record low at both polls, and Co2 just had biggest annual jump. Makes you wonder if shit's about to hit the fan.

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  4. Wondering if there is value in having the CMIP 5 data (some of the RCP groups, like you had with the post about Christy a few months back) added to your active plotter for global temperature indices in the latest ice and temp data.

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