Saturday, January 23, 2016

History of record warm years.

Last year, I posted plots of the progress of the record warmest year for various datasets. This year, I'll show an update for the three main surface sets. The jump from 2014 to 2015 is among the largest record jumps in at least a century. Here is GISS:

And below the fold, NOAA and HADCRUT:


  1. "The jump from 2014 to 2015 is among the largest record jumps in at least a century."

    Clearly the alarmists and warmists are in a panic and are now faking the data more than ever. (rolls eyes)

    Dropping the sarcasm, this result is more remarkable the more I think about it, and I've been *expecting* a +0.10 °C margin since August 2015. And if 2016 should best 2015 by a significant margin...

    In several of the newspapers I follow I've noticed a few of the somewhat brighter AGW deniers have fallen silent in the comments over the past few months. Perhaps they've given up in the face of overwhelming evidence. I have yet to read such an admission, however, nor do I expect to.

    1. It’s certainly getting harder to be an AGW-dismisser (note: I’m avoiding a certain word beginning with ‘d’) these days. It’s not just the faking of data that’s the problem, but also the embrace of those hitherto despised “complex computer models” that “any competent engineer” can see are “spurious”, whether it be the models required to extract temperature data from microwave brightness measurements, or, horror of horrors, CMIP5 models to establish the crucially important diurnal correction.
      Such intellectual contortions do remind me of the lengths people go to in order to defend, say, intelligent design. Indeed I would go so far as to propose that there now exists a “Religion of The Pause”.

    2. To the Pause issue:
      I clearly see a pause in the data.
      It is in all the surface temperature data sets.
      It starts in 1944 and ends approximately 1980, maybe some year earlier, if there was cooling.
      After 1980 there is no pause.
      Although after large El Nino years, like 1997/1998 or 2015/2016, with large jumps in the record, it may take 5 to 10 years to establish a new record.

  2. In news articles about the current El Nino, there appear to be more and more comments speculating this El Nino could extend, maybe even restrengthen. SOI has nosedived, but BOM warns not to read anything into that...yet anyway.

    1. We've figured out the wave mechanism of QBO here

      Robert Grumbine is working on similar approaches at his blog.

      Given the progress at applying straightfoward luni-solar forcing, its just a matter of time before ENSO becomes predictable.

      "SOI has nosedived, but BOM warns not to read anything into that...yet anyway."

      Of course, one can read into that. It's a measure that shows that the ENSO dipole is still strongly negative.

    2. SOI is stronger in El Nino territory (more deeply negative) now than it was the end of last year, according to the 30-day moving average calculated by the Bureau.

    3. Lol. Double dipper? El TwinNino?

    4. Not a double dipper. Any spikes less than a few months apart will get averaged for the SOI metric.