As widely discussed here, 2015 was record hot, and getting hotter at the end. NOAA and GISS made a joint release - NOAA's report is here. For 2015 the annual average anomaly for 2015 was 0.9 °C, which beat the 2014 record level by 0.16°C. GISS put it at 0.87°C, relative to their 1951-80 base; for 2014 it was 0.74.
For December, GISS reported 1.12°C. This was a rise of 0.07°C from November. As usual, this was very close to the change in TempLS mesh, which now stands at 0.076°C. The rise in NOAA (0.14) was also, as usual, very similar to TempLS grid (0.16°C).
According to the NCEP/NCAR index, January is even hotter again, by a long way. The last two days have been cooler. I'll post more on the historical significance of these huge monthly and annual readings shortly, along with the usual GISS/TempLS comparison.
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2 hours ago
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The GISS temperature anomaly for the year 2015 is 0.87°C.
ReplyDeleteThanks, fixed. It aid 0.85 on the map, but this does commonly differ.
DeleteWowza, HadCRUT4 joins the party with a huge 0.2C rise for December and the first monthly anomaly above 1C (just).
ReplyDeleteNick, I apologize for this complaint, and it may well be that I'm the only one who reads here who feels this way, but must you use the term "hot"? I think "warm" gets the job done. Hot seems to me to connote at or beyond the threshold of pain. Maybe you think we're almost there. But i don't and maybe we won't get there.
ReplyDeleteNotwithstanding the above, thank you again for all of the effort you put into this very thoughtful site. It provides good guidance to the perplexed, well, me for one.
jf,
DeleteThanks. Actually, I do mostly talk about warm, but with recent events, one does reach for stronger words. After a few more months, normal warmth should return.
Of course, it may be that you have a January NH perception, but I'm in the SH where it has been a tad hot :)
Nick, I do know it gets HOT there; daughter at ANU, and friends 60 miles north of Conargo - yes, it can be HOT there as well. So maybe you have a point. But isn't it the global rise we're worried about?
ReplyDeleteConargo? Sounds like somewhere near Booligal :)
DeleteHope your daughter is happy at ANU. I did a degree there, but an awful long time ago.
Yes, global. But words tend to reflect how one is feeling.
Baa, baa, baa.
DeleteTo paraphrase a USA saying about politics 'all temperature is local'. Aren't we worried about global warming because it has adverse effects? And aren't those adverse effects at the local level? The global temperature may only be 'warm'. But the effects include local extreme temperature events. And many of those extreme events are hot.
ReplyDeleteI guess I thought HOT was unnecessarily inflammatory. ;-)
DeleteOk, from now on, let's only talk like that : "december 2015 was 3 standard deviation above the mean ; 1,12°C is supposed to happen no more than one time in 370 years." Yes you're right, it's more precise than "hot"...
DeleteWhat will be the GISS temperature anomaly for the year 2016?
ReplyDeleteI tried linear regression using the last GISS and MEI values and get 1.00°C, albeit with a large error bar.
Will we see such a large increase as last year again?
May have to factor in declining TSI as we move towards a minimum, which could shave off a few hundredths. I'd be surprised if it were much above 0.97C, a 0.1C increase.
DeleteThe interesting question for me is how much warmer the "cold" 2017 will be compared to 1998?