According to my NCEP/NCAR based index, February was globally pretty warm. Very warm indeed around the 12th, but a cool start and finish. The hotspot was Central Asia/Mongolia (daily eyeballing estimate). It ended up just a little cooler than October, which after May was warmest in 2014.
I'll have a TempLS surface report in a few days.
Update. Preliminary TempLS (7 mar) is very warm indeed. In fact, warmest month ever (since 1900). But Canada, Australia, China, India still to come. Very warm in Russia and N and E Europe. Cold in E US/Can.
Update 8 Mar. Canada, Australia, India are in. Canada was cold. TempLS has come back to 0.7, below warmest ever (March 2010 at 0.737°C). Still, since 2010 only Nov 2013 has been warmer, and only slightly. There is a little more data to come.
Tuesday, March 3, 2015
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The daily Feb 2015 NCEP anomalies moderated at the end of the month to levels that were high in 1998, so this will be interesting.
ReplyDeleteNick, you and your readers are invited to visit my new blog on reconstructing climate from instrumental data, starting with Australia before 1910:
ReplyDeletehttps://climanrecon.wordpress.com/
Climan,
DeleteThanks. It's interesting to read about records close to home. I'll keep watch.
If you can make contact with Blair Trewin at the BoM, He knows a lot of history there.
I do not know what it takes HadCrut4 so long to report. For those who did not notice, they've reported a hot January. UAH reported today at +.30C for February, which down a bit. And, BOM brought back the EL Nino watch. This time the BOM model is in on the action.
ReplyDeleteNick, I think there is an error with the monthly averages. The value for March 01 has been included in the February average and not in the March average.
ReplyDeleteFor February compared with January, RSS is down 0.039 degrees, UAH down 0.055, whereas Yours and Weatherbells reanalysis indices both are up about 0.07 degrees. I´m looking forward to Your TempLS update to see where the surface temperatures are heading. I think the NOAA/NCDC guys also are doing preiminary calculations for February here: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/png/mlost.13mon.bar.png
February seems to be about 0.02 degrees cooler than January with only a few land stations reporting?
Thanks, Olof,
DeleteI'll check in the morning. There does seem to be an end of month issue; some of the Earth maps don't show around then.
Or it could be a premature leap Year :(
TempLSmesh is beautiful at .742.
ReplyDeleteThat's an all-time record month. But it's very early. No Canada, Australia, China. Last time it went up by about 0.05 as that late data came in. But it could go down.
DeleteIt probably will, but global graphics of NCEP indicate Canada at roughly half and half, and there is not a lot of cold outside of North America.
ReplyDeleteDropped again to .696C. My guess on GISS is .772C, which would make the March 2014 through February 2015, most recent 12 months, .711C. .03C higher than the most unlikeliest warmest year evah in just 59 days. And I don't think it's done.
ReplyDeleteYes. China still to come, which I think will bring it up a bit.
DeleteFebruary TempLS down to 0.685 now. Besides China, Denmark with Greenland is also a major area still to come (few stations affecting a large area).
ReplyDeleteHowever, the picture of TempLS converges more and more with that of NCDC:
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/png/mlost.13mon.bar.png
where all three winter months are essentially similar in temperature right now.
I believe that Greenland (and a bunch of new stations in Mexico) just came in, but nothing really happened, the TempLS index up 0.001
DeleteI checked the february values for China in JMA:s Climate View, the mean anomaly for all stations is about +1.2 (1981-2010 base), so I dont think that China will change the global mean very much when data arrives to GHCN
China is here now, february temps slightly up to 0.692. Sudan data came in as well and caused a dark red hotspot in its part of Africa. The NOAA/NCDC Mlost bar graph (link above) ticked up to about 0.55. The results for february should be more or less settled now..
DeleteThanks, Olof,
DeleteYes, I've posted on that. The Sudan issue is interesting. I think they must have revived a lot of stations that haven't reported for a while. Usually there is a lack of data there, which can cause artefacts. But here there does seem to be real data to back it.