TempLS showed changed very little from April to May. GISS showed a rise, from 0.55 °C to 0.65 °C. GISS has been rising steadily, while other indices that showed bigger rises in March/April have paused. Time series graphs are shown here
In other news, you should check that link for the Arctic ice changes over the last week. Ice was holding up well, but has dived to a record low for this time.
As usual, I compared the previously posted TempLS distribution to the GISS plot.
Here is GISS:
And here is the previous TempLS spherical harmonics plot:
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More data and plots
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Nick Probably the crazy weather has something to do with it (shredding already thin ice).
ReplyDeleteCan't remember if Neven mentioned this, but I remember seeing something about how unexpected thin the ice was. Oh well, looks like I'm going to be eating raman noodles till I get those quatloos paid off.
I bet too high (4.81). Mosher may end up winning at 4.3.
carrick,
ReplyDeleteYes, though I think at this stage that just means taking ice that was always going to melt early and melting it a little earlier.
I bet high too, kind of on Mosher's advice. I think your expectation of quatloos depends not so much on getting the probability density right, but also a good space to the nearest other bet. Mosher said most bets would be 4.3 to 4.6, so I though 4.62 should be a sparse region, even if the estimate is a bit hugh. Alas, I was not the only one noting that advice.
MEI jumped in Apr/May over previous months:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html
That ENSO index has been steadily rising by about 0.3/month this year but went up twice as fast last month. I'm guessing all the indices should be following suit in the next month or two, maybe another 0.15 or so higher for June and July averages.
Nick: Yes, though I think at this stage that just means taking ice that was always going to melt early and melting it a little earlier.
ReplyDeleteYep this is called "displacement" in mortality theory. It's an event (like a heat wave) where nobody who's healthy dies but people who are on their last legs get knocked over a bit sooner. It shows up as a blip in the mortality rate followed by a shrinkage in mortality after the event is over.
The "up and down" pattern that I noticed in my deannualized series is probably associated with that (and because it's ice extent, ice shrinkage and expansion in addition to ice loss.]
What we have here is a feedback between the amount of ice and the amount of energy absorbed into the ocean. Ice has a very high albedo, water a very low one, so losing the ice early probably does have some long term effect.
How the year is going:
ReplyDeleteanuary – 19th warmest
Jan thru Feb – 20th warmest
Jan thru Mar – 21st warmest
Jan thru April – 15th warmest
Jan thru May – 7th warmest
Could it be El Noono?
Just noticed that Walt Meier has an update on WUWT on sea ice.
ReplyDeleteAnd the ENSO predictions for the rest of the year:
ReplyDeletehttp://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html
are looking more and more like it'll be at least a slight El Nino. So - temps should continue to warm or stay about this level through at least the fall.