tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post2978963109110533665..comments2024-03-28T13:56:47.604+11:00Comments on moyhu: May GISS Temp up 0.1°C - ice newsNick Stokeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-63016039506324847062012-06-26T04:29:56.428+10:002012-06-26T04:29:56.428+10:00And the ENSO predictions for the rest of the year:...And the ENSO predictions for the rest of the year:<br /><br />http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html<br /><br />are looking more and more like it'll be at least a slight El Nino. So - temps should continue to warm or stay about this level through at least the fall.Arthurhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06249922708053689717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-74750765861584855042012-06-21T15:27:25.934+10:002012-06-21T15:27:25.934+10:00Just noticed that Walt Meier has an update on WUWT...Just noticed that Walt Meier has an update on WUWT on sea ice.Carrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03476050886656768837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-86645253903860807862012-06-18T02:21:29.751+10:002012-06-18T02:21:29.751+10:00How the year is going:
anuary – 19th warmest
Jan ...How the year is going:<br /><br />anuary – 19th warmest<br />Jan thru Feb – 20th warmest<br />Jan thru Mar – 21st warmest<br />Jan thru April – 15th warmest<br />Jan thru May – 7th warmest<br /><br />Could it be El Noono?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-44431688649609117162012-06-16T03:11:10.638+10:002012-06-16T03:11:10.638+10:00Nick: Yes, though I think at this stage that just ...Nick: <i>Yes, though I think at this stage that just means taking ice that was always going to melt early and melting it a little earlier.</i><br /><br />Yep this is called "displacement" in mortality theory. It's an event (like a heat wave) where nobody who's healthy dies but people who are on their last legs get knocked over a bit sooner. It shows up as a blip in the mortality rate followed by a shrinkage in mortality after the event is over.<br /><br />The "up and down" pattern that I noticed in my deannualized series is probably associated with that (and because it's ice extent, ice shrinkage and expansion in addition to ice loss.]<br /><br />What we have here is a feedback between the amount of ice and the amount of energy absorbed into the ocean. Ice has a very high albedo, water a very low one, so losing the ice early probably does have some long term effect.Carrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03476050886656768837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-77912364880339780292012-06-16T00:19:09.153+10:002012-06-16T00:19:09.153+10:00MEI jumped in Apr/May over previous months:
http:...MEI jumped in Apr/May over previous months:<br /><br />http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html<br /><br />That ENSO index has been steadily rising by about 0.3/month this year but went up twice as fast last month. I'm guessing all the indices should be following suit in the next month or two, maybe another 0.15 or so higher for June and July averages.Arthurhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06249922708053689717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-81962857339985144892012-06-15T15:18:26.548+10:002012-06-15T15:18:26.548+10:00carrick,
Yes, though I think at this stage that ju...carrick,<br />Yes, though I think at this stage that just means taking ice that was always going to melt early and melting it a little earlier.<br /><br />I bet high too, kind of on Mosher's advice. I think your expectation of quatloos depends not so much on getting the probability density right, but also a good space to the nearest other bet. Mosher said most bets would be 4.3 to 4.6, so I though 4.62 should be a sparse region, even if the estimate is a bit hugh. Alas, I was not the only one noting that advice.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7729093380675162051.post-53843788011363966682012-06-15T13:34:46.033+10:002012-06-15T13:34:46.033+10:00Nick Probably the crazy weather has something to d...Nick <a href="http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrfnowcast.gif" rel="nofollow">Probably the crazy weather</a> has something to do with it (shredding already thin ice).<br /><br />Can't remember if Neven mentioned this, but I remember seeing something about how unexpected thin the ice was. Oh well, looks like I'm going to be eating raman noodles till I get those quatloos paid off. <br /><br />I bet too high (4.81). Mosher may end up winning at 4.3.Carrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03476050886656768837noreply@blogger.com