Wednesday, July 3, 2019

June NCEP/NCAR global surface anomaly down 0.056°C from May

The Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index fell from 0.41°C in May to 0.354°C in June, on a 1994-2013 anomaly base. That is the third successive fall since the high point in March, and brings the temperature back to between January and February. Still warmer than June 2018 or 2017, and close to June 2016.

It was mostly cool in N America, warm in Europe (except near Atlantic). Quite warm in NE Siberia/Alaska, and mixed, but mostly cold, in Antarctica.

The BoM ENSO Outlook has been reset from Watch:
"The ENSO Outlook has been reset to INACTIVE. The immediate likelihood of El Nino developing has passed with ENSO-neutral the most likely scenario through the southern winter and spring."

This post is part of a series that has now run for some years. The NCEP/NCAR integrated average is posted daily here, along with monthly averages, including current month, and graph. When the last day of the month has data (usually about the 3rd) I write this post.
The TempLS mesh data is reported here, and the recent history of monthly readings is here. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period here which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS here.

The reporting cycle starts with a report of the daily reanalysis index on about the 4th of the month. The next post is this, the TempLS report, usually about the 8th. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses a spherical harmonics to the TempLS mesh residuals; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a better resolved WebGL plot here.

A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:
  1. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report
  2. TempLS report
  3. GISS report and comparison with TempLS


  1. Looks like some interesting differences in other records. Zeke Hausfather has posted that Copernicus makes it the warmest June on record globally. Your TempLS Mesh is currently up 0.09degC from May. Big upticks in tropical and NH extratropical SSTs with little SH change in ERSSTv5. Based on that it looks a good chance to me that GISS will report a record warmest June.

    Meanwhile UAH TLT have posted +0.47 for June, making it second warmest on record behind June 1998. More than 0.1degC warmer than 2016 in third place. RSS are yet to post TLT but I'm pretty sure they'll report the warmest June on record.

    1. JRA-55 has the warmest June on record, not only at the surface, but also through all troposphere levels up to 300 mbar

      I also checked with STAR MSU data v 4.1. June 2019 is the warmest June on record in TMT and TLT ( if one makes a TLT index with the UAH formula)

    2. June is a very close second in the NCEP/NCAR index; 0.354 vs 0.369 in 2016. I think the TempLS index needs a couple more days of data to be reliable.