Wednesday, April 3, 2019

March NCEP/NCAR global surface anomaly up 0.19°C from February

The Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index rose from 0.393°C in February to 0.582°C in March, on a 1994-2013 anomaly base. Cumulatively, that is a rise of 0.29°C from January, and is 0.4°C warmer than last November. That makes it the warmest month since the peak of the 2016 El Niño, Feb/March 2016, and so is the second warmest March in the record.. It was warm through the month, but most at the beginning and end.

The US was still cool, as was E Canada. But the NW of N America was very warm, as with the Arctic ocean above. There was warmth right through Siberia, into most of Europe and down to Kazakhstan and N China. Below that, a belt of cool from Tibet to the Sahara. Mixed, with nothing very pronounced, in the Southern Hemisphere. However, although Australia looks only moderately warm on the map, the BoM says it was the warmest March on record.

The BoM ENSO Outlook is upgraded to Alert - "This means the chance of El Niño forming from autumn is around 70%; triple the normal likelihood" Remember, that is SH autumn - ie now. .

This post is part of a series that has now run for some years. The NCEP/NCAR integrated average is posted daily here, along with monthly averages, including current month, and graph. When the last day of the month has data (usually about the 3rd) I write this post.
The TempLS mesh data is reported here, and the recent history of monthly readings is here. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period here which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS here.

The reporting cycle starts with a report of the daily reanalysis index on about the 4th of the month. The next post is this, the TempLS report, usually about the 8th. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses a spherical harmonics to the TempLS mesh residuals; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a better resolved WebGL plot here.

A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:
  1. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report
  2. TempLS report
  3. GISS report and comparison with TempLS


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