Tuesday, February 5, 2019

January NCEP/NCAR global surface anomaly same as December, which was up 0.1°C from November

The Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index was delayed by the US government shutdown, and then by some confusion after an apparent delay in finalising 2018 (which my system did not handle well - code being revised). So I'm reporting both December and January. There were ups and downs in late 2018, leaving November a cold month at 0.106°C. So the rise in December to 0.212°C was more of a return to normal, and that continued with the 0.209°C in January.

One remarkable feature in January was a band of warmth starting from the Kimberley region of W Australia and extending through the continent to New Zealand and beyond. This was indeed a very warm month in Australia's inland. It also shows the cold plume from Canada's Arctic islands through the US mid-west, though there is another band of warmth from Alaska to California. There was also a broad band of warmth from China through to Arabia and central Africa, although the Sahara and around the Mediterranean were cold. Polar regions tended to cool.

The BoM ENSO Outlook was downgraded to Watch, although some models predict a reappearance.

This post is part of a series that has now run for some years. The NCEP/NCAR integrated average is posted daily here, along with monthly averages, including current month, and graph. When the last day of the month has data (usually about the 3rd) I write this post.
The TempLS mesh data is reported here, and the recent history of monthly readings is here. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period here which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS here.

The reporting cycle starts with a report of the daily reanalysis index on about the 4th of the month. The next post is this, the TempLS report, usually about the 8th. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses a spherical harmonics to the TempLS mesh residuals; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a better resolved WebGL plot here.

A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:
  1. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report
  2. TempLS report
  3. GISS report and comparison with TempLS


  1. NOAA is predicting a big west to east wind anomaly in the tropical Pacific (light pink blob at bottom of screen):


    My amateur opinion is that this will be a significant boost to El Niño chances. A double shot espresso.

    1. Should have added that my prediction is for a few months out. The whole thing moves at a snails pace.

  2. Today's Niño 3.4 index is the lowest in a long time.


  3. "BoM has an El Niño watch for autumn."

    I wouldn't trust an Aussie as far as I could spit. Should be an alert, or better yet just go with NOAA.

  4. Snape, our host is an Australian.