Sunday, June 10, 2018

May global surface TempLS down 0.038 °C from April.

The TempLS mesh anomaly (1961-90 base) fell a little, from 0.716°C in April to 0.678°C in May. This is less than the 0.09°C fall in the NCEP/NCAR index, while the satellite TLT indices fell by a similar amount (UAH 0.03°C).

It was very warm in much of N America, except NE Canada (cold), and very warm in Europe. Cold in E Siberia, but warm in East Asia generally. Again a pattern of warm blobs around 40-50 °S, though less marked than in recent months. Quite warm in Antarctica (relatively).

Here is the temperature map. As always, there is a more detailed active sphere map here.

Data from Canada delayed this report by a couple of days. Following my recent post on the timing of data arrival, I kept a note of how the TempLS estimates changed day by day as May data came in. The TempLS report is now first posted when the SST results are available, but I wait until all large countries are in before writing a post about it. Here is the table (Melbourne time):
DateNumber stations (incl SST)Temperature
June 0545160.676
June 0648290.723
June 0752940.709
June 0853720.708
June 0953810.709
June 1054740.678

Canada (late) did have a cooling effect.

Read More
This post is part of a series that has now run for six years. The TempLS mesh data is reported here, and the recent history of monthly readings is here. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period here which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS here.

The reporting cycle starts with a report of the daily reanalysis index on about the 4th of the month. The next post is this, the TempLS report, usually about the 8th. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses a spherical harmonics to the TempLS mesh residuals; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a better resolved WebGL plot here.

A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:
  1. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report
  2. TempLS report
  3. GISS report and comparison with TempLS


  1. A recent article by Folland in Science (DOI:10.1126/sciadv.aao5297) showed that ENSO is the largest factor in global temperature variability.

    1. I guess that it will take them at least a couple of years to understand the mechanism behind ENSO. Think it's like an escape room with math involved.