The anomaly pattern was similar to the NCEP/NCAR picture. No great heat, except in Antarctica, but warm almost everywhere. A band of cool between the Sahara and Far East Russia, cool in the SE Pacific, and some cool in the western US. The change toward warmth at the poles will again lead to varying results in the major indices, with GISS likely to rise strongly compared with NOAA and HADCRUT. In fact, TempLS grid, which also has less coverage at the poles, fell slightly to October. Overall, sea temperatures rose a little, after dropping last month.
Roy Spencer noted the recent marked rise in the satellite records, which are now relatively a lot higher than the surface. I'll show (from here) the graph of the last four years on a common 1981-2010 base. Even UAH, which had been a low outlier for most of the time, is now well above the surface measures, and is not far below the 1998 peak.
Here is the temperature map: :
This post is part of a series that has now run for six years. The TempLS mesh data is reported here, and the recent history of monthly readings is here. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period here which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS here.
The reporting cycle starts with a report of the daily reanalysis index on about the 4th of the month. The next post is this, the TempLS report, usually about the 8th. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses a spherical harmonics to the TempLS mesh residuals; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a better resolved WebGL plot here.
The reporting cycle starts with a report of the daily reanalysis index on about the 4th of the month. The next post is this, the TempLS report, usually about the 8th. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses a spherical harmonics to the TempLS mesh residuals; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a better resolved WebGL plot here.
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The CFSR GMSTA estimates were also up by 0.11C from September to October 2017 and both were about 0.1C higher than October 2016. In recent months the Tropics Zone (30N-30S) surface temperature anomaly estimates have been tracking downward, along with the tropical Pacific SSTA. The Pacific SST pattern looks like a marginal La Nina pattern at present. It will be interesting to see if the La Nina intensifies or fades over the next few months and what happens there may influence the GMSTA.
ReplyDeleteOff topic.
ReplyDeleteI've been wanting to look at NOAA STAR's AMSU-A channel 4 data for a while, but I couldn't get it out of netCDF and into a time series. They made some changes and now it can be loaded into the KNMI Climate Explorer. https://climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi?id=someone@somewhere
The weighting function for channel 4 (near nadir) is essentially the same as TLT. It can be seen in this figure http://journals.ametsoc.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/ams/journals/content/atot/2014/15200426-31.4/jtech-d-13-00134.1/20140409/images/large/jtech-d-13-00134.1-f1.jpeg
It is documented here:
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JTECH-D-13-00134.1
It has since been updated with Po-Chedley style diurnal drift corrections. Data is here:
ftp://ftp.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/smcd/emb/mscat/data/AMSU/AMSU_v2.0/AMSUA_only_Monthly_Layer_Temperature/
Channel 4 is very similar to RSS4 TLT (slightly higher trend) until early 2013 when the two series begin to diverge. This divergence is also evidedent when compared to UAH6 TLT. Here are some plots:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_lCLuYGlorYNkh1ajJDVjI4WVVOQ2h2VURHTThiZ2luYUNr
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_lCLuYGlorYNWdWQzRMYTdPQVZfTnhMa0tnaDVvYWJQMVdZ
Thanks, CCE. I was looking at Star just recently, but had trouble accessing data. I'll try through KNMI. Yes, it's remarkable how STAR followed RSS until, I would have said, start 2014, then switched to UAH. I wonder if there is an interpretation in terms of instrument switches?
DeleteWell, I think one explanation for the divergence might be that STAR doesn't use the european satellites Metop A and B. That is a drawback because these non-drifting satellites that don't need drift correction are highest quality..
DeleteAlso, NOAA/STAR, have seemingly the policy to use all satellite data til the bitter end. For instance, they still use the old NOAA-15, which RSS and UAH found unreliable years ago.
Nick, Star channel 4 is not available at Knmi. I think cce just uploaded it to Knmi for analysis.
Last time I looked att the AMSU-only Netcdf:s they were a mess. No proper date and one month too much. They also lacked the Geo2D latitude average, which makes it much more laborious to make time series by use of spreadsheets
Thanks CCE + Olaf. The good news is that RSS+UAH are in better agreement post 2008. With the non-drifting satellites, UAH should gradually close the trend gap with other datasets going forward as the 2003-8 "cool" period gets diluted with additional data.
DeleteChubbs
Berkeley Earth reports the warmest October (land only) on record, in line with troposphere temps:
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/rarohde/status/930719228822466561
OHC is also up according to the latest quarterly data from NOAA/NODC. The seasonal anomalies have gone into wild swings in recent years so one have to look at 12 month averages instead. The 12 month average is back on record levels after the el Nino drop. Here is my compilation of OHC data beginning in 2007 when the Argo array was fully deployed:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_dL1shkWewaSkJBNk43Si1xSlU
Argo 7-L is my own simple calculation, just depth-averaged temperatures times volume and heat capacity, calculated for seven layers from surface down to 2000 m.
The data for Sepember from Argo marine atlas is one month behind schedule, both hopefully they will report both Sep and Oct soon.
July and August showed large increases i OHC, which can be seen here in the little noisier "derivative" version:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_dL1shkWewaclNiLWdnSnV4Wk0
The graphs at node.noaa show a 3rd-quarter decline. - JCH
DeleteYes, but compare with 3rd quarter 2016, or the change in the 12 m average with the latest quarter.
DeleteThe anomalies show large large seasonal swings, which means that the "old" Levitus climatology isn't valid anymore. The seasons have changed...
Okay, yes. I still think some of what is going on is the tilt of the Pacific. When ARGO under 2000 meters is in place, it either will be or won't be. - JCH
DeleteNick - very difficult to comment here. For me, any other approach, the comments just disappear.
JCH, Argo Marine Atlas has updated through Oct now, so just use the links above and updated chart will appear.
DeleteThe large OHC increase continued in September and October.
Only SST and top 100 m are cooling.
Regarding the seasonal OHC change in recent years, I would describe it such as the SH oceans accumulate relatively more heat now, and have become more dominating in the global OHC.
The solar insolation to Earth is largest in the SH summer (january) so a change in albedo (ice and clouds) could explain the altered seasonal pattern in OHC..
Olof R - thanks. I'm printing out your graph so I can mark the months and compare the ONI periods and the weekly SST maps: just for fun. Looks like the JIASO PDO may finally sag into negative numbers. Nino 1.2, on the other hand, has suddenly warmed. The La Niña is off to a rocky beginning. - JCH
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