Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Surface TempLS down 0.19°C in May

TempLS mesh, reported here (as of 8 June, 4221 stations), was down from 0.934°C in April to 0.744°C in May (base 1961-90). This continues the post El Nino decline noted in the NCEP/NCAR index (down 0.164) and in the satellite measures ( RSS down 0.23° UAH down 0.16). But SST is only slightly down.

The spherical harmonics map is here:

The main cool spot was in Siberia, which was very warm during El Nino. Also US, S America around Paraguay, and a spot in the N Pacific. Warm in other boreal regions, Europe, and (unusual recently) Antarctica. The breakdown shows most regions not very cool, but only moderately warm.

In other news, JAXA Ice melting has slowed in recent days, but ice is still well down on past years..


  1. Era-interim for May is slightly contrasting, down by only 0.10 C from April, according to the latest Copernicus report:

    The question is, will we see the first Gistemp month below 1.0 C since September? I'm not quite sure about that. Gistemp often behaves surprisingly..

    Regarding the recent slowdown i Jaxa. I think the Arctic sea ice is thinning (and decreasing in volume) for the moment, rather than decreasing in extent. Anyway, the Arctic ocean and its surroundings are relatively warm right now, and will be so the coming week...
    Just click forward one week on the map from here:

    I think there will be a boost in the Greenland surface melt..

    1. Olof, others - BOM has updated their ENSO outlook. Looks like La Nina lite.

    2. There is so much that's obvious in the ENSO time series when you get the symmetries figured out.

    3. web - I remember that exchange with Peter Webster from when it took place. As 2016 has unfolded, certain CE denizens have been predicting a monster La Nina that will restore the pause. Even a Godzil-La Nina cannot restore the pause. The AMO shot up in May; I'm expecting a small dip for the PDO; I'm expecting SST elsewhere will buffer a La Nina, and that predictions like Meehl's new IPO-based one, and Trenberth's PDO-based one will be incorrect for the next ten years because the warming rate they are predicting appears to be way too low: around .23 ℃ per decade. Look at the current 7-year rate.

    4. JH, I don't buy what Peter Webster is selling:
      " Peter Webster | May 26, 2014 at 8:50 pm | Well, WHT, not so easy. The system is highly nonlinear (hence error growth) which limits forecasts of ENSO across the spring time. Called the “spring predictability barrier” and exists when the noise in the system is greater than the signal. This occur in the boreal spring which is the reason for uncertainty in forecasts at that time of the year. Persistence of ENSO indices between April and July is close to zero. Persistence from June to December is much higher. This once the nonlinear trajectory has occurred, the system is very predictable. Now extend this argument to what the next ENSO cycle will be: zero predictability. I think you fall in the trap of noting that ENSO variability has time scales of 2-4 years and that this seemingly oscillatory nature of the phenomena means predictability. Papers on this if you would like. Bottom line, ENSO is a nonlinear property of climate, naturally varying but the onset of a phase is unpredictable. Papers on this topic if you like. PW"

      The goal of Webster, Curry, and company is to maintain a high level of uncertainty. This is understandable, because it keeps their services as climate consultants in demand. You see, only they can provide advice on forecasts.

      But if there is a pattern underlying ENSO, it would be an interesting twist on climate forecasting. This training model uses data between 1881 and 1950 and projects it forward.

      It is rare that a validation interval correlation coefficient is higher than that on a training interval. And with the physical evidence behind this model, it may be just the trick. The only non-deterministic part is the uncertainty of a possible phase inversion, which is a property of a biennial standing wave system -- the fundamental can be either on a even or odd year boundary.

    5. ENSO model from first principles, starting from Laplace's original wave equations:

      Cool how accurately the model fits the data when you apply the fundamental hydrodynamic equations.

  2. Re: sea ice, ice extent has flattened out somewhat, though not area. See
    This suggests to me a very high incidence of ice break-up. PIty "cryosphere today" is out of action.

    Also volume tracking 2012's record low very closely: