A huge spike in recent days, again breaking records. The warmth was in Arctic, Canada/Alaska, East US, a large swathe of Cenral Asia, E Siberia, and still the ENSO Pacific region. Cool in Mid and W USA, and mixed in Antarctica.
The UAH V6 TLT index rose from 0.54 °C to 0.83 °C. Big rises are expected at this stage of an El Nino. RSS rose even more from 0.663 to 0.974°C. As predicted, this was enough to totally extinguish the "Pause" in both satellite TLT records. Some say the Pause may come back, but it's unlikely. Here is the basic math. For RSS, the mean since 1997 (a pause period) is 0.257°C. This will change, but slowly. The trend rises in proportion to the excess over this for each new month, and drops if it is less. There are going to be several months with an excess near 0.5. To negate that accumulation requires a set of months undershooting 0.257 by similar amounts, or some other way of reaching the total. In recent years, months near or below 0 have been rare.
Update. Karsten also has similar surface results, with GFS rising from 0.655 to 0.817°C and NCEP/NCAR T62 from 0.653 to 0.819°C, with anomaly base 1981-2010.
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NCEP/NCAR values of 0.665 °C for January and 0.84 °C for February compared to 0.33 °C for all of 2015. That's just stunning.
ReplyDeleteNot stunning in some places. See, there's going to be a libertarian savior La Nina.
ReplyDelete"To negate that accumulation requires a set of months undershooting 0.257 by similar months(sic) [amounts?]"
ReplyDeleteThanks, fixed
DeleteAccording to the reanalyses the surface indices should skyrocket in February. However, this could be dampened by SST. I looked at OISST daily and ICOADS SST over at KNMI climate explorer, and they are actually down 0.11 and 0.14 respectively from January.
ReplyDeleteNick, RSS has know a recommedation to use TLT v3.3 with caution due to drifting measurements. I guess that TTT v4 should be used instead, until there is a new TLT v4 out on the market..
Looking at NCEP/NCAR data at Climate Explorer, reanalysis SSTs are also about 0.1C down.
DeleteOK Paul, NCEP/ NCAR for Feb wasn't there when I looked 3 hours ago, but when I look at NCEP/NCAR sea for February now, it is only down by 0.04 C with the 1981-2010 base, but up 0.02 C with the 1951-1980 base, compared to Jan.
DeleteICOADS SST doesn't get this minor boost by use of the 1951-1980 base.
I think you must be looking at the 2m temperature. Surface would be the correct comparison with ICOADS and OISST.
DeleteFirst results from TempLS are appearing; Canada, Autralia etc missing, but the SST, based on ERSST v4, is up somewhat in March.
DeleteGFS ocean temperature (2m) slightly down as well based on quick check (-0.03K). Land massively up.
DeleteHi Karsten,
DeleteI think the GFS verification at your site is quite interesting right now. The heat in the beginning of March is lingering much longer than expected from the early forecasts. A week ago I expected March temperatures to drop signifantly from Feb, but now it doesn't seem unlikely that the record high temperatures continue..
GFS has a cold forecast bias of -0.3K (7 day fcst vs eventual analysis) at the moment. Don't know why, but ECMWF seems to be doing much better. GFS didn't stand out with a fcst bias on way or another in the past, but during the last 2-3 weeks the fcst is persistently too cold. My suspicion is that GFS has a tendency to produce too much cold in Eurasia under high pressure which simply doesn't pan out. So yes, warm temperatures continue (tho well below record levels set end of Feb) and first 10-15 days of March will probably be similar to February average. I don't expect strong cooling for the rest of March either ...
DeleteOlof,
DeleteYes i had this conclusion a week ago, there is for now a constant forecast-Bias in GFS relative to their Analysis, just watch here: http://www.wzforum.de/forum2/read.php?6,3176153,3177630#REPLY Figure 1 in my Post (no german i think is need to understand :-) )
Reading German is no major problem.. Is there a warm bias as well, ie when GFS forecasts very warm conditions, they end up less extreme than expected?
DeleteNo, until a few weeks ago, there was alway like a random bias, sometimes to warm, sometimes to cool, in my opinion its the first time, that GFS has a one direction bias over a longer period, i think this will disapear, but when i dont know.
DeleteICOADS is itself inhomogeneous, you will have to wait untill ERSST4v is realised
ReplyDeleteICOADS SST works quite well for month to month changes, but not for long-term changes, but yes ERSST v4 might be slightly different, a few hundreths or so..
DeleteOlof said:
ReplyDelete"A week ago I expected March temperatures to drop signifantly from Feb, but now it doesn't seem unlikely that the record high temperatures continue.."
Since you have a double negative in that sentence, could you confirm that what you mean is that "now it does seem likely that the record high temperatures continue.." ?
March is a long month. It does not take long to drag down the average. Feb started very warm, and finished hot. SOI just nosedived... in range of its October dip. It seems this El Nino could be again poised to defy prediction.
Delete