The GHCN data for January is now fairly complete. The TempLS report is here. Unusually, the holdup this time was US data, which is usually first to appear. The headline result is that TempLS mesh is down from 0.97°C (1961-90 base) in December to 0.899°C in January, almost the same as November. TempLS grid showed a greater drop of 0.18°C.
The lead up indicators were mixed. The satellite measures rose quite strongly. The satellite measures rose quite strongly. The Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index showed a small rise of about 0.04°C, as I believe did Weatherbell. But Karsten, based on GFS, had a very large drop of 0.25°C, and for NCEP/NCAR 0.15°C. There is support for a significant drop. I would expect falls in GISS and NOAA, though possibly not quite as large.
The daily NCEP/NCAR helps understand what happened. The first half of Jan was very warm, and then a sudden cooling. Back to very warm in February. It seems qite likely that different measures might get variable results there.
I'll focus this time on the breakdown, which is, as shown in the regular report, here:
It shows the actual area-weighted contributions of each region to the monthly anomaly. Interestingly, SST rose, after a dip in December. But Europe, Australia and Antarctica were well down relative to earlier months, and other regions somewhat more subdued, except Arctic, which was warmer. The Spherical Harmonics map and the stations reporting are in the report. Notable features are a warm Canada and a fairly narrow band of cold stretching from Scandinavia to China, with hot spots either side. Also, of course, El Nino.