Friday, August 24, 2012

New JAXA record low Arctic Sea Ice Extent



The lowest previous SIE in the IJIS JAXA record since 2002 had been 4,254,531 sq km on 25 September 2007.

The value for August 24 2012 is 4,189,375 sq km.

JAXA has been apt to correct upward current day readings, and the latest melt day was 149,000 sq km. But still there is a fair cushion there. JAXA melting is still very rapid.

Sunday, August 19, 2012

Lucia's bet on Arctic Sea Ice


Lucia is taking quatloo bets on the NSIDC average for September 2012. In the linked post, she's looking at some history, and wondering whether it will be a new record low. Her modelling so far isn't sure.

I think there will be a new record. NSIDC, like JAXA, is low and dropping fast.  So I drew some graphs to show some recent precedents.

Saturday, August 18, 2012

Sea Ice - more melting


I've added to the table at the ice/temp update page. It now includes the 2012 NSIDC numbers from here. They are on the right, in purple (h/t Neven).

NSIDC doesn't update as promptly as JAXA, so I've just put the total following the last day's difference reading. NSIDC also seems to be noisier.

However, both are showing rapid melting currently. JAXA stands at 4.664 m sq km, only about 0.4 m above the record 2007 low, and it has lost 0.377 m sq km in the last three days. The NSIDC index is showing a similar situation.

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

July GISS Global Temp down 0.09°C


GISS showed a global temperature anomaly drop from 0.56°C to 0.47°C. The June figure was also adjusted down a little from my earlier post, so that makes a total GISS drop of 0.19°C in two months. TempLS dropped only 0.05°C in that time. Both NOAA and HADCRUT were even steadier from May to June, so it will be interesting to see what they say this time. The satellites also diverged, with UAH down like GISS, while MSU-RSS was similar to TempLS.
Update - NOAA has posted, down 0.019°C. NOAA and TempLS have tracked very closely in recent months.

Time series graphs are shown here

As usual, I compare the previously posted TempLS distribution to the GISS plot.

Friday, August 10, 2012

July TempLS Global Temp down slightly (0.03°C) from June


The TempLS analysis, based on GHCNV3 land temperatures and the ERSST sea temps, showed a monthly average of 0.47°C for July, down from 0.5 °C in June. This was a similar change to the previous month. There are more details at the latest temperature data page.

Below is the graph (lat/lon) of temperature distribution for July. I've also included a global interactive map of station temperatures. There has been publicity about NOAA's declaration of July as a record hot month for the contiguous USA - you can magnify to see the GHCN station readings there.

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Arctic Storm



Neven has been tracking a big storm in the Arctic. This now seems to be having, as he predicted, an effect on the ice melt. The recent IJIS JAXA numbers show a very big drop over two days. In fact, there is almost the same ice extent now as on the same day of 2007, and less than any other year (in the period of readings since 2002) and the storm is far from spent. This is rather ominous, because in 2007 the most rapid melting was up to the first week in August, with slower melting thereafter.

I should caveat that the IJIS latest day reading is often adjusted down the next day. Neven doesn't usually show it. I'm less cautious, but you should bear this in mind.

Update 8/8. Yesterday's high JAXA melt figure held up, and another big one today, makes 2012 pass 2007 to show the least ever JAXA ice extent for 8/8. Each of the last three days well exceeds any other day's melting in the JAXA record.