Monday, June 3, 2019

May NCEP/NCAR global surface anomaly down 0.086°C from April

The Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index fell from 0.496°C in April to 0.41°C in May, on a 1994-2013 anomaly base. It was a substantial fall, exactly the same as from March to April, and yet it still leaves May as warmer than February, or any earlier month back to May 2017.

The Arctic was quite warm, including Greenland and west. There was a band of cool from E Canada to California. Also W Europe was quite cool, and also China through to central Asia. Antarctica was mixed.

The BoM ENSO Outlook is back to Watch - still an enhanced likelihood.

This post is part of a series that has now run for some years. The NCEP/NCAR integrated average is posted daily here, along with monthly averages, including current month, and graph. When the last day of the month has data (usually about the 3rd) I write this post.
The TempLS mesh data is reported here, and the recent history of monthly readings is here. Unadjusted GHCN is normally used, but if you click the TempLS button there, it will show data with adjusted, and also with different integration methods. There is an interactive graph using 1981-2010 base period here which you can use to show different periods, or compare with other indices. There is a general guide to TempLS here.

The reporting cycle starts with a report of the daily reanalysis index on about the 4th of the month. The next post is this, the TempLS report, usually about the 8th. Then when the GISS result comes out, usually about the 15th, I discuss it and compare with TempLS. The TempLS graph uses a spherical harmonics to the TempLS mesh residuals; the residuals are displayed more directly using a triangular grid in a better resolved WebGL plot here.

A list of earlier monthly reports of each series in date order is here:
  1. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis report
  2. TempLS report
  3. GISS report and comparison with TempLS

1 comment:

  1. As Paul S predicted on another thread, good chance of one or more record warm months over the summer. June 2016 was 0.369 on NCEP, but Haustein's site indicates that there may not be any temperature falloff from May--->June.